Omicron is 6 Months Old

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Omicron is just 6 months old. It appeared as an entirely new strain of the virus not being related to the Alpha or Delta variants of COVID-19. Some researchers believe it may have infected mice and the strain and new variants blossomed in the mouse population before jumping back to infect humans.

The good new is that Omicron is less virulent than Delta which it replaced. Though less virulent, so many people became infected with Omicron all at once during the January spike, that it ultimately resulted in more deaths than from Delta.

Perhaps the fact that so many people have been infected has helped build up immunity. The trouble is that the immunity from infection and vaccination eventually wanes.

There are a lot of cases out there right now. The exact number is impossible to tell since testing sites across the country have been shut down and those who are infected take at home tests which are not counted or they don’t test at all.

Hospitalizations right now are lower than at any other time during the pandemic. Human nature is to say I am done with COVID when there is a perceived lull in cases. We have been here before, many times. However future variants combined with waning immunity may result in the next wave being much worse than what we are experiencing right now. This virus is unpredictable.  Any forecasts done prior to January of 2022 would not have any idea about Omicron. It was a curve ball that came out of nowhere.

We can hope that Omicron continues to become less severe in the future, but hope is not a good foundation for public health policy. The White House has made statements that hint that the worst of the pandemic is behind us, but lets face it a pandemic isn’t great a president’s chances of re-election in mid term elections. On the other  hand the White House warned of 100 million possible cases this fall and winter if the COVID funding package from Congress was not approved. Welcome to the strange world of mixed messaging.

Don’t Tease the Tiger

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Dr. Gregory Poland, head of Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group made a clear analogy of where we stand todaaaaaay with the pandemic, he said, Americans are teasing the tiger by letting their guard down. BA.2 is 50 to 60% more transmissible that Omicron, which was which was 50% more transmissible than Delta, which was 50% more transmissible than Alpha. Despite this Americans are going about life feeling COVID-19 is behind them because they are tired of it. The virus doesn’t care about how tired people are, it is not done with us.

Those who reject vaccines and masks will likely face a horrible future. 1 out of every 328 Americans has died from COVID. Somehow Americans have normalized this. By pretending the pandemic is over people are not only teasing the tiger they are taunting it.

America is experiencing about 30,000 new COVID infections a day, about 18,000 in the hospitals across the US, and about 800 deaths a day. Americans seem to have normalized this level of death and infection. Everyone is out having spring parties and mass gatherings.

The story has played out many times before with a series of markers that hint that a new variant may cause a new surge in cases. That is where we are right now. We are in a quiet valley and are likely to experience another surge in the weeks ahead with BA.2. Only 65% of Americans have gotten 2 doses of vaccine, of those, less than half have gotten a booster. With BA.2 rising in America the advice remains the same, continue to wear an N95 mask indoors, and wear it over your mouth AND nose. Get fully immunized and boosted. A second booster is being made available for people over 50 years old and I plan to get that ASAP. BA.2 is coming.

Stealth

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Multiple countries in Europe are showing an increase in infections, fueling concerns about the possibility of another global surge. The United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland and Italy were among those that saw an upswing in cases this past week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The European surge also comes alongside conflict in Ukraine after the Russian invasion, leading to rising concerns about a public health crisis in the region sparked by densely crowded shelters and forced travel across borders. The WHO said earlier this month that the conflict may cause a surge in infections, straining scarce resources and contributing to more suffering and death.

BA.2, known as the “stealth” omicron variant, is making up a growing number of cases in some countries, and some studies show that it may be up to 30% more transmissible than the original omicron variant. China just locked down 52.5 million people to try and stop the spread of BA.2 stealth omicron. On March 15, China issued city-wide lockdowns in place in Shenzhen, affecting 12.5 million people, Dongguan (10.5 million), and Langfang (5.5 million), and locked down the whole province of Jilin, affecting 24 million. That’s 52.5 million people.

Cases of BA.2 made up an estimated 11.6% percent of cases in the United States as of March 5, 2022 according to CDC data, up from 6.6% February 26, 2022. In the United States hospitalizations are on the decline but this country has always lead the world in the number of cases and deaths. Only 44.3% of the U.S. population has received a booster dose so this country is ripe for another surge.

Omicron which was supposed to be a “milder” variant has killed more people than the Delta variant. World wide the number of deaths from COVID-19 is over 6 million. A new study found that the actual number may be 3 times higher, up to 18 million dead.

Bail

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10,000 Americans died from COVID-19 last week. Over 860,000 Americans have died so far which is three times the number of casualties from World War II. 10000 deaths are like experiencing 3 to 4 devastating plane crashes every day, for the month, with about 90 people dying in each crash.

Despite this 25% of Americans refuse to get a life saving vaccine. Some journalist on the Bill Mayer show pronounced that she is done with COVID. She used to spray the Pringles cans, (who actually eats Pringles?) She stripped her clothes off fearing COVID might be on her clothes. She thought that when she got the vaccine life would return to normal. Now, she is over it.

She is of the new group of Americans that fit into the “Vaxed and Done” camp.” She is inconvenienced and only thinks of herself.  She really isn’t thinking about the true sacrifices of doctors and nurses all across America who are burnt out from having to watch so many people needlessly die.

Media like to point out that Omicron is less deadly than Delta. In the case of the original strain of COVID, if there are 10,ooo infections, and each patient then infects 1.1 other people, and of those 0.8% might result in death, in one months time you might expect 129 deaths. If the virus is more deadly like Delta then the number of deaths might rise to 193 in a month. If the virus is 50% more contagious like Omicron then in that case there would be 978 deaths.

The virus is controllable with simple masking, distancing and vaccines. However many Americans consider this an inconvenience. America has proven incapable of rationally responding as a society. 1 out of every 375 Americans has died from COVID and they continue to do so. a mask is 25 cents and the vaccine is free, yet that is a bride too far. Another 50,000 to 300,000 Americans will die from COVID by March 2023.

Doctors and nurses are trying to bail out the life boat while others not only refuse to bail but are actively trying to sink the boat.

William Cranshaw wrote in 1625, “Abhor more that poison wicked opinions that the pestilence us not infectious, that each can do whatever he wants, that avoiding persons and places, and diligent use of means for preservation, are needless and of no use…”

The Peak?

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Hospitalizations in the United States may have peaked, the highest day being January 14, 2022 with almost 152,000 Americans hospitalized for COVID-19. Actually, I wrote that hopeful first sentence yesterday and, I was dead wrong, the number of hospitalizations has slipped even higher. We may not be at the peak yet, but hopefully soon.  As of January  18, 2022 over 153,000 Americans are hospitalized with COVID-19. More people are hospitalized with COVID-19 now than at any other time in the pandemic.

Some think that hitting the peak would mean that we are in the clear. However that is NOT the case. If the downward slope is more gradual that the initial ascent, then you can see more cases and death through out the decline than you saw during the rise. More people die as after reaching the peak of Everest that on the ascent to the peak.

America is seeing way more hospitalizations than any other developed country. This is likely because vaccination rates are so low in America. Our World in Data reported that of all the countries included in its analysis, the U.S. has the lowest proportion of its population that is fully vaccinated and also the lowest rate of booster shots administered.

“Overall, a smaller percentage of reported cases were hospitalized compared to the Delta wave (about 2% versus about 5%), but there were more total hospitalizations due to significantly greater case numbers,” a report by New York City’s health department concluded last week.

Another problem is that the Omicron variant hit America as we were still in the midst of a huge Delta spike. Thankfully Omicron displaced Delta, infecting far more people while being a bit less deadly.

The Omicron variant is less likely to lead to hospitalization than other variants, data suggests, but it’s so transmissible that hospitalizations are spiking anyway because so many people are being infected all at once.The hope is that the numbers will drop as fast as they spiked upwards to reach this peak. Those unvacinated who survive will have some level of immunity going forward. Those who were fully vaccinated and boosted who also get infected may develop “super immunity.”

Will COVID Become a Common Childhood Disease?

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As Omicron infects everyone in the world, it will offer some immunity to Delta and possibly future variants of COVID-19. It will find everyone who is unvaccinated and infect them. We do not know yet how hard the virus will hit the unvaccinated. I follow hospitalizations and they are rising daily but not as fast as the daily case numbers, of which there were one million new cases in one day in America on January 3, 2022. That is truly astonishing.

With everyone becoming infected all at once, the hospitals will become overwhelmed. Healthcare workers are already angry. May have resigned preferring not to deal with the stupidity of so much needless death.

Those that are fully vaccinated and boosted are only 40% protected from also being infected. The good thing is that the vaccine still does protect against severe infection and death. The U.S. government counted many shots of vaccine as first doses that were actually second doses or booster shots. Adjusting for these discrepancies. about 61.3% of Americans are now fully vaccinated and only 30% of those have been boosted.That leaves plenty of people wide open to infection.

Healthline reported that, new research suggests that as COVID-19 becomes endemic across the world, it could become as prevalent as the common cold and would affect mostly children who will not have been vaccinated or exposed to the virus yet. While this sounds frightening the researchers clarify that children are far less likely to have severe symptoms related to COVID-19. As a result, the overall effects of the disease will be lessened. The study was published in the journal Science Advances this month.  “It was the conclusion of these researchers that COVID-19 will do what other epidemic respiratory viruses have done in the past, which is to transition to a routine, seasonal infection, and involve young children more than others,” Dr. Michael Grosso said.

COVID Caught a Cold

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A gene sequence from the common cold virus has worked its way into the Omicron variant of COVID-19. This gene sequence was not in any of the previous mutations of the virus (Alpha, Beta, Delta).

This happened through a process known as switching. The COVID virus invaded a cell and at the same time a common cold virus invaded the same cell. The genes of the two viruses then get mixed up together. This new combination makes the virus more competitive and virulent.

The virus became far more transmissible but perhaps less pathogenic. Patients in South Africa are nor requiring as much oxygen as was needed for patients suffering from Delta.

Omicron is evading vaccines and people who have been infected in the past are being re-infected. Pfizer-BioNTech,  has announced that three doses of vaccine are needed to combat Omicron. Research has shown that a third vaccine shot increases antibodies by 25%. They did not say how long those antibodies last. The company is rushing to develop an Omicron specific version of the vaccine which should be available by March 2022.

Omicron is the most transmissible of all the variants of COVID-19 to date. It is 4 times more transmissible than Delta. It has now been detected in 57 countries. Those numbers change by the hour. It will dominate the world stage in several weeks time. We will all be exposed to this variant. Symptoms include, Body aches and pains, muscle pain, headache, tiredness (1 to 2 days), and a slight sore throat. People are not getting a severe cough, or runny nose. These symptoms are consistent with my everyday existence for the past 20 months. A loss of smell or taste is no longer a symptom with Omicron. The fact is that many people will not realize that they have COVID-19 with these symptoms. Most will not go to hospitals and will recover at home. It is important to note however that there has been an slight increase in hospitalizations in South Africa, but it has not been a huge spike consistent with the amazing exponential growth in infections.

Though Omicron looms in the near future, the fact is that Delta is causing a huge spike in hospitalizations and death in states like Michigan and Minnesota. Despite these rising cases and deaths, most Americans are done with the pandemic and have returned to pre-pandemic life styles. Thanksgiving travel rivaled pre-pandemic travel and cases that resulted from all that mingling are just now reaching their peak. People have let their guard down and the virus will take full advantage of that weakness.

Children are the new victims of the virus. 132,000 children have been reported with infections in the last week across the country. Children will be infected by the Omicron variant at an increased rate. Children need to be vaccinated and even boosted if they are eligible. In South Africa 80% of the patients admitted to hospitals and diagnosed with COVID were under the age of 50. This is a younger age profile than existed with the Delta surge.

Omicron Beats Delta

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Experts believe that the Omicron Variant of COVID-19 will be more transmissible that Delta. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that 38 countries across the world have reported cases of the highly mutated omicron Covid-19 variant so far.

The virus spike proteins have  32 mutations which make it easier for the virus to spread and infect humans. For comparison, Delta had 9 mutations. The Omicron variant might also evade COVID-19 vaccines, but it could take some time to see if that’s true or not. The Omicron variant may also cause more re-infections.

More children are being admitted into hospitals with COVID infections in South Africa where the variant was first reported. Last month in South Africa, 74% of genomes sequenced were Omicron. Within two weeks, Omicron has replaced Delta in South Africa. 56 countries have imposed travel bans but the virus has already spread world wide. Thousands of people have flown into the United States from South Africa and other infected countries since the variant was first reported and when the flight restrictions finally began. Omicron can reinfect people who have had COVID-19. Since it can reinfect people the pool of potential hosts makes for exponential growth in infections. Omicron will become the main variant in the world.

At the moment, the only data scientists have to estimate omicron’s transmissibility comes largely from the cluster of cases at a university in Pretoria, South Africa. The rapid rise in cases there could be due, in part, to a superspreading event.With only 4% of the population vaccinated, thousands of people took to the streets to protest in a “Superspreader March.” It was a “March to Save Lives” but may have instead been the perfect way to spread the new variant.

Cases of Omicron in America have been reported in 5 states so far but it is likely fare more wide spread. The only reason we don’t know more, is that the United States has a very poor record of genomic analysis compared to other countries. The first case discovered in America had been fully vaccinated but had not gotten a booster yet.

Basic health measure that have been promoted since the start off the pandemic still work. Wear a good quality mask, social distance and wash your hands often.

The good news is the early cases have been mild so far. However cases usually get worse in the second and third week of infection, so we will see how deadly the virus  mutation is soon. If it turns out that it produces only mild cases that do not require hospitalization, then that could be very good news. Time will tell.

Mu Detected in Local Sewage

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The Mu COVID-19 variant (B.1.621) has been detected in Altamonte Springs, Florida sewage. The virus is shed it in stool or urine. Tests are done on the waste water as a predictor for possible transmissions in a community.

The variant has also been found in 49 other states. As of Oct. 29, 2021 the Mu variant accounts for less than 1 percent of all COVID-19 infections in the U.S., according to the GISAID Initiative, which is an organization that promotes the rapid sharing of data from all influenza viruses and COVID-19. It is still the dominant strain of COVID-19 in Colombia, where it was originally found.

People did not consider Delta to be much of a concern when it came to the United States from India back in June. When a virus takes a foothold it grows at an exponential rate. By the time everyone realized it is a problem it is already too late.

Mu has mutations already in Delta ( B. 1.617. 2) but it also has mutations from Alpha (B.1.1.7), which was also known to be highly transmissible. A lab study pre-print suggests, that Mu is the most immune evasive virus we’ve seen in the pandemic. It could be able to evade the immunity provided by vaccines and prior infections. It has been listed as a a “variant of interest” by the World Health Organization since August 30, 2021.

“Mu looks potentially good at immune evasion,” Danny Altmann, PhD, an immunologist at Imperial College London, told The Telegraph. “For my taste, it’s a stark reminder that this isn’t by any means over. On a planet of 4.4 million-plus new infections per week, there are new variants popping up all the time, and little reason to feel complacent.”

 

COVID-19 Psychic

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In America the surge of Delta COVID-19 cases is trailing off, but what will happen as we head into the winter months? Americans vaccinations have come to a virtual stand still and many people prefer to believe that the pandemic is over.

The virus will return and it will once again peak. Scientists are baffled to explain it’s continuing prevalence around the world. The best weapon against continued hospitalizations and deaths is to get vaccinated.

The New York Times reported that cases are rising in five northern states, Vermont, New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan and Minnesota. This like the 2020 surge as the weather got colder.

There are about 80,000 cases a day in the United States. The U.S. is also not doing a great job of testing and contact tracing so those numbers are likely low. We are averaging 1,560 deaths a day. In the US over 50,000 people have died since that start of the Delta surge which began in June 2021. They did not need to die. A simple vaccine could have saved most if not all of those lives.

We can learn much about what might happen in the United States by watching trends around the world. Around the world there is declining activity. Europe however is seeing the highest number of cases and deaths in more than five months. Eastern Europe is particularly bad. Vaccine acceptance is particularly low in these countries. In Russia only 33% of residents are vaccinated. They don’t trust the government. Does that sound familiar? The death toll is likely under reported in Russia. The virus is not done with humanity. There are plenty of people that it can continue to burn through.