China Wave

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China’s Zero COVID policy has crumbled after protests in the streets over what the American media called a draconian policy. The same people who considered the zero COVID policy as heavy handed are now gleefully pointing out that millions will become infected once that policy was reversed. China is going to far as to insist that people go to work even if they know they are infected.

I for one was happy to see China trying to do something about the pandemic. However Omicron is so infectious that a zero COVID policy was impossible to enforce. Up until the Zero COVID policy reversal, China saw few infections since the initial outbreak in Wuhan. The Chinese New Year was a massively effective way that the virus spread in the first weeks of the pandemic. Chinese workers would travel far to be with family for the new year celebrations.The same mass exodus is about to happen now that the virus is spreading rapidly in the vaccinated and population. The Chinese New Year celebrations are on January 22, 2022, it will be a super spreader event.

Spiraling infections in China have led to shortages of cold medicine, long lines at fever clinics, and at-capacity emergency rooms turning away patients. China has stopped genomic sequencing of the virus strains in the country.The danger is a new variant of the virus developing.

America has decided that it needs to insist that any person flying from China must test negative for COVID. Italy has also decided to test all passengers coming in from China. On a recent flight into Italy half of the passengers tested positive for COVID-19. The virus does not respect borders or walls. Had flight been stopped in the first week of the pandemic then the virus might have been contained, but that opportunity has long passed. Around 9,000 people in China are probably dying each day from COVID-19, UK-based health data firm Airfinity said on December 29, 2022.

If there is a new variant coming in from China it will have free reign to spread in America in a few weeks. No border wall will stop it.

Animal Reservoirs

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Some have theorized that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 was circulating widely in populations of mice before it found its way back into human hosts. That would explain why the variant was so completely different that the previous variants of COVID. It came out of left field, unrelated to strains of the virus that had been mutating in the human population.

Humans as a rule tend to think of themselves as the center of the universe. They are however only a fraction of the life on the planet. Scientists have known for a long time that animals can catch COVID-19. However research has been scant as to exactly which animals have contracted the virus and more importantly how often animals have passed the virus back to humans.

Undoubtedly people have passed the virus to their pets as they become infected multiple times. COVID may have infected over 500 other mammal species. Humans have become complacent about the virus spreading from human to human so of course there is little concern about the virus spreading among animals. The only problem is that the virus tends to mutate differently in other mammals. COVID is not a human virus it is a virus that attacks many species. Mutants of the virus could become more transmissible but no one knows it that has happened.

17 million mink were murdered in Finland in an effort to stop the spread of the virus. China began killing pet store hamsters in another effort stop the spread. It is fascinating how murder is often considered the best solution to a public health issue. Animals who get the virus are often asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. That is another reason people seem blissfully ignorant of this issue.

White tailed deer in America have been rather susceptible to the scourge of the virus. Since hunters wander the woods to kill the deer they might be the ones spreading the disease to the deer population. Researchers test some of the deer killed and an amazing number are infected. Of 481 deer tested, 30% were infected. Another surprise is the the variants found are different that those circulating among humans. One bit of advice to hunters is that they should not eat the brains of their kill.

Sars Ani-Vis has built a site that shows the animal species that are becoming infected and where they are found. The deer population in America has the largest number of documented cases followed by dogs and cats. The numbers however are very small compared to the millions of humans that have died from COVID-19. Not many researchers are following this lead. There is probably not much money in knowing animals are getting infected.

Variant Race

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There are over 300 variants of Omicron now circulating. Many are more able to escape immunity offered by vaccination and former infection. They are also more effective than than BA.5 at binding to the ACE 2 receptors. In this mad race to infect, the variants to watch out for are BQ.1.1, BQ.1, BQ.1.3, BA.2.3.20, BA.2.75.2 and BA.7.

BQ.1 has taken the lead in Europe, particularly in France, Germany and Great Britain. It is very likely that the wave comming this fall and winter will be driven by many variants rather than one predominant variant like past waves.

As of October 16. 2022, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, account for about 11% of the viruses sampled in the U.S., per data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. BA.4.6 and BF.7 are also gaining traction in the U.S., accounting for about 12.2% and 5.3% of sampled viruses respectively, per the data. XBB, another mutated version of Omicron, may be best suited to evade immunity, including a breakthrough BA.5 infection, The Washington Post reported.

COVID-19 response coordinator Ashish Jha said earlier this month that the White House is monitoring “the rise of several subvariants.” NIAID director Anthony Fauci also warned last week about the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants, which he called “pretty troublesome” due to their rate of increase. Meanwhile the CDC director Rochelle Walensky has tested positive for a COVID-19 infection.

The director’s case comes amid concerns among Biden administration officials and public health experts alike about a tough Covid-19 winter ahead, with hospitalizations already on the rise in Europe. This despite the fact that Biden thought it wise to announce that he thought the pandemic was “over”. In the US, hospitalizations have leveled out,, and I suspect will begin to rise soon. About 300 to 400 people continue to die every day from the virus. This is the insane new normal. Just a quick news flash, COVID is an airborne virus and simply wearing a mask in crowded settings can greatly reduce your chance of infection. Walensky has abandoned advising mask wearing and look how that turned out.

BA Bingo

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The BA4 and BA5 variants of Omicron is causing a massive wave or re-infections thanks to its immune escape ability. IF you were infected with a previous variant of COVID-19 or if you are “fully” vaccinated, you are not protected from being infected by the BA4 and BA 5 variants. Some experts believe that over one million people are being infected every day. If, like me you have managed to evade infection so far, your time is running out before you become infected.

I continue to take basic safety precautions like masking and social distancing not because I fear death, but because I don’t want to have to deal with long haul COVID symptoms and complications. I had to go to the Department of Motor Vehicles, a nightmare in itself, and in that tight crowded room no one had a ask on besides myself. I am amazed by that.

The vaccines are great at helping avoid hospitalizations and death but they are bot the ultimate solution in America’s new normal. The huge rise in cases caused by BA5 is resulting in a rise in hospitalizations. It would seem to make sense that a rapid rise in cases should result in people taking basic precautions, but Americans seem to be “over” COVID. The virus then happily take advantage of holiday travelers and people gathering in huge crowds. It seems humanity is pre-programed to huddle together in tight crowds and long lines.

Some believe that future variants of COVID will become weaker causing less severe illness but that is not a foregone conclusion. Pi, Sigma, Tau, Upsilon, any one of these can become more deadly. This virus will never be eradicated. Generations from now, children will be getting vaccinated for COVID-19 because our generation wasn’t able to take the threat of the virus seriously. Take simple basic precautions to help stop the spread. Get vaccinated, wear you mask indoors and outdoors if in a crowd, and social distance. BA5 can spread person to person even with a brief passing encounter indoors and outdoors.

The Houdini Escape Virus

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The Omicron BA5 variant is a Houdini Escape Artist. When people got infected they might be frightened for a moment but when they recovered, they let out a sigh of relief and thought they were done with the virus. The same happened for folks who became “fully vaccinated”. Once vaccinated people thought they were done with the virus and returned to life as normal. BA5 has changed the playing field. Re-infections are not only more common but they are happening on a scale never before imagined. It is estimated that there are over 100,000 new cases daily and that is likely an under count since at home testing and people getting infected and simply not reporting their infections make an accurate count impossible. About 300 people continue to die every day which is like 3 commercial airline crashes every day. This level of death seems to becoming acceptable for most Americans.

The original Wuhan strain of the virus was very deadly because it infected people’s lungs leaving people like fish out of water gasping for air. The Omicon variants which might have evolved by infecting mice proved to be less deadly because they only infected the nose and throat, and not affecting the lungs as much. BA5 has taken a step back, becoming similar to the original Wuhan virus and settling deep into peoples lungs. Multiple re-infections are resulting in people getting more serious outcomes. Even mild infections and re infections are resulting in long bouts of Long COVID which can be debilitating. Only time will tell if it is truly more deadly.

The BA5 variant which is now dominating in the United States is the worst possible version of the virus to hit the United States yet. This virus’s ability for immune escape means those with past infections and those who are vaccinated can and will become infected. On top of immune escape the virus is the most contagious variant to date. It is close to becoming the most contagious virus ever, second only to the measles.

Since vaccines are becoming less effective against prevent COVID infections, it is reasonable to assume the hospitalizations and deaths will also be on the rise. I track hospitalizations daily, and they are indeed on a steady rise. Despite this basic health safety precautions have been abandoned and our nation is unable to adjust to the changing playing field.

“The superpower of BA.4 and BA.5 is, if you had Omicron in January, you’re still going to be susceptible to getting BA.4 and BA.5. It’s the escape artist of COVID, the Houdini, because the spike protein looks so different, even (compared) to BA1. The front guards, the antibodies, are not recognizing it,” Chin-Hong told KRON4 on July 5, 2022.

Korean Military Fight Omicron

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North Korea is battling an explosive COVID-19 outbreak. Experts are raising concerns that the virus could devastate a country where few have been vaccinated against the disease, medical supplies are limited and the health system in a dilapidated state.

Dictator Kim Jong Un, ordered the army to get to work “on immediately stabilizing the supply of medicines in Pyongyang”, where officials said the Omicron BA.2 variant was confirmed in at least one death last week.

As of 6pm on May 16, 2022, five days after announcing the outbreak, North Korea had reported a total of 1.48 million cases of ‘fever’, It also announced a further six deaths. It is almost guaranteed that those numbers are but a fraction of the actual totals since the dictator can in his own mind do no wrong.

The North Korean dictator had been offered assistance from South Korea, China, and the World Health Organization (WHO) but all help has been refused. Kim, who considers himself a god like figure, thinks that he is the only one who can help his people. Rather than accept vaccines from abroad, he thinks his nation will find the best cure for COVID.

Kim has said the outbreak is causing “great turmoil” in the country and on Sunday visited pharmacies neat the capital’s Taedong river, state media KCNA reported.

Despite the public health crisis, new satellite imagery indicates North Korea has resumed construction at a long-dormant nuclear reactor and officials in Washington and Seoul have warned that Kim is preparing to conduct another nuclear test.

Analysts have warned Kim could speed up nuclear testing plans to distract the population from the outbreak.

A huge military parade in North Korea on April 25, 2022 was likely a superspreader event that quickly spread the virus through the county. Send in the tanks.

Omicron is 6 Months Old

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Omicron is just 6 months old. It appeared as an entirely new strain of the virus not being related to the Alpha or Delta variants of COVID-19. Some researchers believe it may have infected mice and the strain and new variants blossomed in the mouse population before jumping back to infect humans.

The good new is that Omicron is less virulent than Delta which it replaced. Though less virulent, so many people became infected with Omicron all at once during the January spike, that it ultimately resulted in more deaths than from Delta.

Perhaps the fact that so many people have been infected has helped build up immunity. The trouble is that the immunity from infection and vaccination eventually wanes.

There are a lot of cases out there right now. The exact number is impossible to tell since testing sites across the country have been shut down and those who are infected take at home tests which are not counted or they don’t test at all.

Hospitalizations right now are lower than at any other time during the pandemic. Human nature is to say I am done with COVID when there is a perceived lull in cases. We have been here before, many times. However future variants combined with waning immunity may result in the next wave being much worse than what we are experiencing right now. This virus is unpredictable.  Any forecasts done prior to January of 2022 would not have any idea about Omicron. It was a curve ball that came out of nowhere.

We can hope that Omicron continues to become less severe in the future, but hope is not a good foundation for public health policy. The White House has made statements that hint that the worst of the pandemic is behind us, but lets face it a pandemic isn’t great a president’s chances of re-election in mid term elections. On the other  hand the White House warned of 100 million possible cases this fall and winter if the COVID funding package from Congress was not approved. Welcome to the strange world of mixed messaging.

Stealth Wave

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People don’t react to a wave they don’t see coming. In the North Eastern United States cases are once again beginning to rise this time because of the Stealth variant of Omicron called BA.2.

With 2 years of social distancing, masking, vaccination and hand washing you might think Americans would be ready to handle this next wave. However Americans are done with COVID-19. The vaccinated are done because the vaccines have indeed proven very effective at protecting against hospitalization and death. Getting the booster shot that is now being rolled out would also protect against infection the the upcoming months but not many are rushing out to get another booster.

With so many people now doing home tests instead of going to testing centers, it will be hard to see this new wave coming. I track hospitalizations as opposed of cases and thankfully they are relatively low after the huge spike in January of 2022. More Americans died from the Omicron that from the far more deadly Delta variant. Though less virulent, Omicron is so contagious that the incredible numbers of people infected still result in deaths.

England is experiencing the highest level of infections since the start of the pandemic and it is safe to say that America will experience a similar spike in the coming weeks. We are in the eye of the hurricane.

There’s no consensus among experts on exactly when waves begin or end, or how sharp or tall one must be to count. A wave will involve a sudden rise in cases form a baseline low. We are in that low right now. We are lucky in that cases are so low as BA.2 is taking over. With exponential growth the cases seem low for some time and then suddenly rise at alarming rates. No one can say for sure how alarming the next wave will be.

The fact is however that Americans have lifted most all restrictions and are going about life as normal as the tsunami wave quickly rushed towards the shore.

Don’t Tease the Tiger

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Dr. Gregory Poland, head of Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group made a clear analogy of where we stand todaaaaaay with the pandemic, he said, Americans are teasing the tiger by letting their guard down. BA.2 is 50 to 60% more transmissible that Omicron, which was which was 50% more transmissible than Delta, which was 50% more transmissible than Alpha. Despite this Americans are going about life feeling COVID-19 is behind them because they are tired of it. The virus doesn’t care about how tired people are, it is not done with us.

Those who reject vaccines and masks will likely face a horrible future. 1 out of every 328 Americans has died from COVID. Somehow Americans have normalized this. By pretending the pandemic is over people are not only teasing the tiger they are taunting it.

America is experiencing about 30,000 new COVID infections a day, about 18,000 in the hospitals across the US, and about 800 deaths a day. Americans seem to have normalized this level of death and infection. Everyone is out having spring parties and mass gatherings.

The story has played out many times before with a series of markers that hint that a new variant may cause a new surge in cases. That is where we are right now. We are in a quiet valley and are likely to experience another surge in the weeks ahead with BA.2. Only 65% of Americans have gotten 2 doses of vaccine, of those, less than half have gotten a booster. With BA.2 rising in America the advice remains the same, continue to wear an N95 mask indoors, and wear it over your mouth AND nose. Get fully immunized and boosted. A second booster is being made available for people over 50 years old and I plan to get that ASAP. BA.2 is coming.

Stealth

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Multiple countries in Europe are showing an increase in infections, fueling concerns about the possibility of another global surge. The United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland and Italy were among those that saw an upswing in cases this past week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The European surge also comes alongside conflict in Ukraine after the Russian invasion, leading to rising concerns about a public health crisis in the region sparked by densely crowded shelters and forced travel across borders. The WHO said earlier this month that the conflict may cause a surge in infections, straining scarce resources and contributing to more suffering and death.

BA.2, known as the “stealth” omicron variant, is making up a growing number of cases in some countries, and some studies show that it may be up to 30% more transmissible than the original omicron variant. China just locked down 52.5 million people to try and stop the spread of BA.2 stealth omicron. On March 15, China issued city-wide lockdowns in place in Shenzhen, affecting 12.5 million people, Dongguan (10.5 million), and Langfang (5.5 million), and locked down the whole province of Jilin, affecting 24 million. That’s 52.5 million people.

Cases of BA.2 made up an estimated 11.6% percent of cases in the United States as of March 5, 2022 according to CDC data, up from 6.6% February 26, 2022. In the United States hospitalizations are on the decline but this country has always lead the world in the number of cases and deaths. Only 44.3% of the U.S. population has received a booster dose so this country is ripe for another surge.

Omicron which was supposed to be a “milder” variant has killed more people than the Delta variant. World wide the number of deaths from COVID-19 is over 6 million. A new study found that the actual number may be 3 times higher, up to 18 million dead.