Stealth

Posted on by Thor

Multiple countries in Europe are showing an increase in infections, fueling concerns about the possibility of another global surge. The United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland and Italy were among those that saw an upswing in cases this past week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The European surge also comes alongside conflict in Ukraine after the Russian invasion, leading to rising concerns about a public health crisis in the region sparked by densely crowded shelters and forced travel across borders. The WHO said earlier this month that the conflict may cause a surge in infections, straining scarce resources and contributing to more suffering and death.

BA.2, known as the “stealth” omicron variant, is making up a growing number of cases in some countries, and some studies show that it may be up to 30% more transmissible than the original omicron variant. China just locked down 52.5 million people to try and stop the spread of BA.2 stealth omicron. On March 15, China issued city-wide lockdowns in place in Shenzhen, affecting 12.5 million people, Dongguan (10.5 million), and Langfang (5.5 million), and locked down the whole province of Jilin, affecting 24 million. That’s 52.5 million people.

Cases of BA.2 made up an estimated 11.6% percent of cases in the United States as of March 5, 2022 according to CDC data, up from 6.6% February 26, 2022. In the United States hospitalizations are on the decline but this country has always lead the world in the number of cases and deaths. Only 44.3% of the U.S. population has received a booster dose so this country is ripe for another surge.

Omicron which was supposed to be a “milder” variant has killed more people than the Delta variant. World wide the number of deaths from COVID-19 is over 6 million. A new study found that the actual number may be 3 times higher, up to 18 million dead.

Lollapalooza

Posted on by Thor

Lollapalooza was a four day concert event in Chicago which wrapped up on August 1, 2021. An estimated 100,000 people attended.

Leading up to the festival, Chicago’s COVID-19 daily case rate was quintuple what it was a month ago. It does not take a seasoned epidemiologist to see that this will be a super spreader event. You can be sure that there will be a sharp increase in cases of COVID-19 in Chicago and the surrounding area in two weeks time.

Concert goers had to show proof of vaccination or a COVID test that was negative to attend. Videos posted showed staff barely checking vaccination cards on entry. The Delta variant is proving quite successful at breaking through and infecting fully vaccinated individuals. When a vaccinated person get the virus they may be asymptomatic or just show symptoms of a common cold. Their airways however can carry as much of the virus as an unvaccinated person and they can easily spread the virus to 8 or 9 other people. The ancestral strains of COVID -19 only spread to 2 or 3 other people

A study from Israel shows that the Pfizer vaccine is showing decreasing efficacy over time. The study found that there was only a 41% symptomatic protection against getting infected. The original protection against symptomatic infection when the shots were first given was 90%. Dr. John Campbell from England speculates that the timing between vaccine doses accounts for this reduction in efficacy. Israel had 3 weeks between shots. The UK had 8 weeks or more between shots and the efficacy is over twice as high. In the United States we have 3 weeks between doses just as in Israel. It is fair to assume that vaccinated individuals in the United States have an increasing chance of infection over time but remain safe from severe disease and death.

In May 2021 Lollapalooza festival goers were told they needed to show a negative COVID-19 test taken 24 hours or less before entering, that number was increased to 72 hours, allowing a much longer window to theoretically contract the virus before the festival. Earlier this month, the Verknipt festival in the Netherlands admitted unvaccinated attendees as long as they had a negative test taken within 40 hours of entering. The festival was later linked to 1,000 COVID-19 cases among its 20,000 attendees. So if that math holds up Lollapalooza may result in 5000 or more infections. Now lets say those 5000 people spread the virus to 8 friends and family. That would be 40,000 people infected.

At the Rolling Loud hip-hop festival in Miami two weekends ago. Tens of thousands of people showed up daily to the festival, which did not require masks, vaccinations or negative tests. Last week, the rapper Dess Dior and the actor Alexa Leighton, among others, announced on social media that they had tested positive for COVID-19. Their infections coincided with a larger spike in Florida at large, in which COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have risen dramatically.

Lollapalooza was an outdoor event but the hundreds of thousands of people were packed in like sardines. Delta has also proven effective at spreading better outdoors. It has spread at soccer matches. Basically anyone who went to Lollapalooza who was not vaccinated is at a very high risk of getting infected and having severe symptoms. When I saw photos of the crowds I just could not believe what I was seeing. This was absolute insanity and Chicago’s Mayor Lori Lightfoot seemed to think it was a great idea.

Post script: As of September 6, 2021, according to Chicago City officials there are 200 confirmed cases of COVID-19 associated with the Lollapalooza concerts.

Bees Detect COVID-19

Posted on by Thor

Researchers in the Netherlands have trained bees, which have an unusually keen sense of smell, to identify samples infected with COVID-19, a finding they said could cut waiting times for test results to just seconds.

Using the Pavlovian training methodology, researchers gave the bees sugary water as a reward after showing them samples infected with COVID-19. The bees would get no reward after being shown a non-infected sample.

The bees  are put in harnesses much like a horse at a race track. When presented with a COVID positive sample the bees would extend their tongues to receive a reward. The extending of the bees’ straw-like tongues to drink is confirmation of a positive coronavirus test result, according to the researchers.

It can take hours or days to get a COVID-19 test result, but the response from the bees is immediate. The method is also cheap, potentially making it useful for countries where tests are scarce, researchers said. The technique of “insect sniffing” was effectively tested by the U.S. Dept. of Defense to detect explosives and toxins in the 1990s. The notion of harnessing bees to have them sniff COVID samples all day could be inhumane as well. If you were to give me a sip of Mountain Dew every time I sniffed a COVID sample I would be a happy camper.