Fall COVID Colors

Posted on by Thor

Emerging COVID variants and waning immunity means there will be a wave of COVID infections in the fall and winter of 2022. BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5 are subsiding but other variants are in the wings to take it’s place. The effort to roll out a bi-valiant booster to combat the new variants has been anemic at best. Only 2% of Americans have opted to get the shot. Al the while Omicron is evolving with a new generation of immunity-dodging variants.

United Kingdom and some other European countries, are seeing the swift ascent of BQ.1 ( a descendant of BA5). In India, the BA.2.75 variant is on the rise. BA.2.3.20, is growing quickly in Singapore, and has turned up in Denmark and Australia. BQ.1.1 (a member of the BQ.1 family with one extra spike change) and BA.2.75.2 are the most immune evasive, being able to dodge most neutralizing antibodies elicited by infection with BA.5. That means your past infection will not protect you from being re infected.

BA.4.6, dubbed Aeterna by variant trackers on Twitter, is slowly but steadily climbing toward the top of the mountain of variants in the U.S. In early October 2022 it accounted for 14% of cases in the United States. It’s growth is exponential. Aeterna appears to have a nearly 6% growth advantage over BA.5, according to an Oct. 7 technical brief from the United Kingdom Health Security Agency.

I am sure your head is swimming with all the different variants which are competing to infect us. Those who have gotten vaccinated have some protection from severe disease and death but the anti vaccine folks are shit out of luck.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, predicts a coming wave of infections that will swell in October and peak in late December or early January. So far no single variant has become undeniable the most dominate. I would put my money on BA.4.6 to be knocking on your door this fall season.

Covid Macht Frei

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In Germany the number of ICU patients in the hospitals was just 200 two weeks ago, that has surged to over 1600 patients as of October 13, 2022. On October 10, 2022 a clinic in Munich, Germany had to deal with a sudden wave of COVID patients. Thirty to 50 percent of the hospital staff were out sick. The clinic work counsel reported that they could not guarantee optimal care of their patients. This clinic is in the same city that just finished hosting Octoberfest celebrations after a two year hiatus.

An estimated 5.7 million people attended Octoberfest in Germany. Nothing has been learned from past super spreader events. The virus thrived in such a setting where thousands gather together and drink beer while taking no respiratory safety measure such as social distancing, and masking. This is the perfect storm. Germany’s health minister, Karl Lauterbach said, that the festival likely had an impact on the rise in COVID cases. Cases are rising all across Europe.

Besides the festival itself, changing behavior in general are likely leading to the rise in cases. German politicians of all parties have published pictures of themselves without a mask at the festival. According to the new Infection Protection Act, even minor requirements, such as access restrictions, mandatory hygiene and mask mandates, are no longer permitted. People are over COVID and they want to get drunk to forget about the 151,000 Germans who have died from COVID so far. Over six million Jews were murdered in the holocaust, so several hundred thousand dead do to COVID is a drop in the bucket.

In Germany about 80 people lose their lives to COVID-19 every day in Germany and a new wave is gathering speed, at the same time the German federal and state governments are dismantling the last remaining measures and promoting a “live with the virus” strategy. In cities around the country that host Octoberfest celebrations similar rises in cases are happening. In Rosenheim, Germany for example, the seven-day infection rate rose there to over 1,000 infections per 100,000 inhabitants approximately one-and-a-half weeks after the start of the Oktoberfest.

Right now over 85% of hospital beds are occupied in Germany. On October 14, 2022 Germany record 114, 198 new cases. With at home testing and under reporting that is just the tip of the iceberg. Germany’s doctors association, Marburger Bund, urges states with surging COVID rates to reintroduce mask mandates in public indoor settings and transport. Germany’s Health Minister also called for the re-introduction of mask mandates, citing the “Shar increase” in COVID cases. As with most “suggestions” and “urgings”, both will go ignored. PROST!

 

 

Apologies to Lorraine Hansberry (You Too August Wilson)

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This play by Rachel Lynett, exists in a “historically inaccurate” world. The playwright asks the audience to imagine that after the election of President Trump in 2016 there was a second Civil War that segregated the country. A member of the all-Black state community raises concerns after a resident’s partner, who is Afro-Latinx, moves to town. This dynamic, funny, and heart-wrenching winner of the 2021 Yale Drama Series Prize was previously seen at Orlando Shakes as a part of PlayFest 2020. Now see this ground-breaking, fully produced production!

In the first act the play seems to do a hard restart with the author changing course and retelling the story from another angle. In every scene there is a sense of exuberance and joy with an underlying fear that the safety of the community can not last. A street party busted out with most of the audience getting up to join in the dancing. I was a stick in the mud since I kept sketching.

My favorite moment came when the author texted the actors and asked them to define what blackness meant to them. Every actor in turn offered a monologue from their personal experience of that blackness meant to them. It was incredibly heartfelt and moving. It has been a long time since I sat in a small theater and fell in love with an entire cast. I will not try and peel away all the layers of judgement and acceptance that made this cast such a joy to watch. I identified with the proud artistic spirits who rose despite never being encouraged to do so.

The show runs approximately one hour and 30 minutes, with no intermission. The show runs through October 30th in the Goldman Theater in the Orlando Shakes (812 E Rollins St Orlando, FL 32803). I highly advise seeing the show, just bring along your KN-95 masks.

Crealde Safety Measures

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I have held most of my Crealde Urban Sketching classes outdoors to help protect my students from possible exposure to the COVID-19 virus. We had one close call where a student who was waiting for the class to start tested positive for COVID.  I had to miss a class when a house guest brought home the virus, having caught it at a summer camp. Miraculously through isolation and diligent wearing of masks at home both Pam and I avoided exposure.

Anyway, at Crealde we explore the Crealde campus with our sketchbooks. I sketch along with the students and I have never run out of interesting angles to draw. The sketches I do here are probably the best documentary sketches I have done of what it is like to responsibly live with the virus.

On Jun 19, 2020 Crealdé School of Art Covid-19 Safety Measures were as follows:

1. We are reducing the maximum number of students in our classes to 6 – 8 students
depending on classroom size and medium.

2. We are re configuring our studio spaces and work tables to allow for 6 feet social
distance. Classroom floors will be clearly marked in a way that student traffic and
pathways utilized will not impede or intrude upon the six-foot or more social
distancing.

3. Galleries and exhibition spaces will be limited to 10 visitors at a time adhering to the
six foot social distancing guideline.

4. On a daily basis, Crealdé and Heritage Center staff are cleaning bathrooms and
disinfecting doors, handles and classroom surfaces.

5. We promote frequent and thorough hand washing by faculty, staff, students and
visitors.

6. We continue to ask that any staff, faculty, students or visitors who are coughing,
sneezing or in general not feeling well, to please stay at home, and to continue to
follow the directions of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or a
health professional. Anyone demonstrating health issues will be asked to leave.

7. Students are encouraged to use their personal work/art tools and equipment when
possible. For youth classes, separate individual “baggies” will be provided for each
student’s class supplies.

8. We are instituting regular/enhanced instructor housekeeping and
maintenance/janitorial practices, including routine cleaning and disinfecting of
surfaces, equipment, and other elements of the school environment after each class
is dismissed.

9. Until further notice, we strongly encourage the wearing of masks in classrooms and
exhibition spaces for students and visitors. All of our instructors will be wearing
masks in class. We have extended  our mandatory mask wearing policy for at least through the winter session.

 

Air Play

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Air Play presented by Orlando Health is set up in Senef Arts Plaza in front for the Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts through October 30, 2022. I went to sketch with my advanced Urban Sketching student and we found that everything was deflated on Sunday afternoon. It was like a large lawn of sad deflated Santas and snowmen that people have on their front lawns around Christmas time. We decided to sketch these large eyes of Sauron in the corner of the lawn since they were the only things that remained inflated.

Between the eyes is a large green generator. As we sketched a guy came out with a cart that had 10 to 15 gallons of gas to power the generator. When it roared to life all the structured on the lawn slowly began to inflate. The large structures were covered with brown tarps and those tarps had to be rolled back much like you might see at a baseball game after it rains.

Penis shaped mushrooms sprouted up behind one of the eyes along with a large red ant. Bright red and yellow flowers covered a hillside which was probably a kid’s slide. Someone then rolled the eyes away to the opposite side of the lawn. It turns out you can roll these eyeballs around and play a distorted game of eyeball soccer. Also on the lawn was a large 15 foot tall heart, lungs and what looked like human intestines. It was a bright, Gulliver sized recreation of Normandy beach on D-Day.

A young teen girl and her boyfriend rode by on those scooters they have downtown. She circled back and wanted to see our sketched. She didn’t know how to use the scooter, and when she stepped off, it did a wheelie and flipped over onto the lawn. They rode by a second time to check on our progress. As we sketched the theaters let out and a huge crowd pressed past us. I masked up as they all walked by talking about the shows.

As of March 7, 2022, The Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts lifted for all indoor shows and events both public and private. I saw maybe 2 masks in the crowd of hundreds who walked by. Orlando is done with the pandemic but the pandemic is not done with Orlando. The Orlando Sentinel reported that there were 22,592 new coronavirus cases recorded over the past two weeks among Florida residents, bringing the cumulative total to 7,129,245. There were 522 more COVID-19 deaths, bringing Florida’s total to 81,661 dead. When the Pulse nightclub shooting happened, people rushed to give blood. Now people are happy to ignore s literally hundreds of people die every week from COVID in Florida. The death baseline has shifted.

Crealde Thumbnails

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At my Crealde Urban Sketching course I always have the students do a series of thumbnail sketches so they can explore compositional possibilities before committing to a full page sketch. I do fast and car free sketches along with them to show them each stage of my process.

This was also a lesson in perspective. Anything man made is usually square and knowing where a vanishing point is helps to find the right angles in a cue shapes object. You can see I even drew lines in the grass hinting at where the vanishing point is across the lake.

In the fall the temperatures are just right for sketching outdoors. Fall classes start October 23, 2022.

 

Why are more Republicans dying of COVID-19?

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ABC News reported that average excess death rates in Florida and Ohio were 76% higher among Republicans than Democrats between March 2020 and December 2021, according to a working paper released last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Vaccine hesitancy among Republicans may be the biggest cause. The partisan gap in the deaths widened between April and December 2021, after all adults became eligible for COVID vaccines. Excess death rates in Florida and Ohio were 153% higher among Republicans than Democrats during that time, the paper showed.

The June study suggested that COVID vaccine uptake explained just 10% of the partisan gap in the deaths. Those researchers suggested that compliance with other public health measures such as mask use and social distancing was a significant factor. It is hard to imagine that people who deny the efficacy of getting vaccinated might also not wear a mask or social distance. This defies science and logic.

The research was limited to Florida and Ohio. It is possible that people from those states are just dumber that Americans from other states. More research is needed. About 20% of the U.S. population still hasn’t received a single Covid shot, according to the CDC. Only 2% of Americans have gotten the new Omicron specific booster shot. As the pandemic continues to play out, we will see more death among vaccine deniers most of whom happen to be Republicans.

 

COVID’s 3rd Act

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Plays and movies have three acts. The first act sets the scene and shows what life was life before an inciting incident happens like the spread of a deadly virus around the world. The second act is an active attempt to return life to normal but that act seems to have been botched by most politicians and public health experts. We are still in the second act of this pandemic play. The virus continues to kill 400 to 500 people every day in America however the actors on the stage seem content to accept this level of death as they dream of returning to life as normal. They wander the stage and breath in each others mask less faces satisfied that they have not died from the virus and therefor who cares about anyone else.

So how does the third act play out? Is a peaceful transition where everyone ignores that the pandemic even happened and the virus magically disappears? The fact is that the virus is here to stay and there will be more waves as variants change and adapt to infect more clueless actors. Even the COVID deniers are surprised when friends and loved ones become infected. America does a magnificent job of quietly disposing of the dead while the living remain happily ignorant.

Some day scientists should be able to bring the devastating nature of this virus more under control. But for now, no one knows what lies ahead. Europe is once again seeing a spike in cases of COVID-19. 9 countries are seeing their hospitalizations increase. In France case numbers have doubled in the last couple of weeks. The levels are still rather low compared to the huge spikes earlier in the pandemic. In the past, Europe has offered the United States and early look at what is coming.

The bottom line is that Americans are done with the virus. The virus however is not done with Americans. Personally I went in to get my 5th shot of COVID vaccine which is intended to combat the latest Omicron variants. Only 2% of Americans have chosen to get this extra jab. To me it is a no brainer, but for so many, denial is the considered the better option.

Phantasmagoria XIII: Poe Through the Tales Darkly

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Tonight is the final performance of Phantasmagoria XIII: Poe Through the Tales Darkly at the Alexis and Jim Pugh Theater in the Dr. Phillips Center of the Performing Arts. Tickets are about $35. The cast performs the haunted stirrings of The Raven to the sheer terror of The Tell Tale Heart. . . and from the grim tolling of The Bells to the bittersweet grieving of Anabelle Lee along with a selection of other whimsical, macabre, and terrifying stories and poems, you are invited to celebrate an evening of Poe’s works. The perfect way to usher in the Halloween season!

I knew going into this sketch that I would not have time to finish, so the paint was added back at the studio. This is a rather panicked, making of sketch that was done in a carriage house as the cast of Phantasmagoria posed for a photo for the promotional materials for Phantasmagoria XIII: Poe Through the Tales Darkly. It was a hot day and the carriage house was set up to look like a long abandoned attic. Items in the set are often reminders of past performances. Everything on hand had a taste of the macabre.  Thin fabric veils and spider webs dangled from hard mannequins and the rafters. Two dolls occupied an ancient wheel chair. Madness permeated the very wall boards and electrical conduits that ran along the rafters.

You could cower in the darkness or delight in it’s pure dark insanity.

Phantasmagoria Dress Rehearsal

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Phantasmagoria is presenting, Phantasmagoria XIII: Poe, Through the Tales Darkly at the Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts. I went to sketch the final dress rehearsal. I unfortunately was running late but managed to get there for the final two scenes. The sketch therefor was a bit of a rush to complete since I usually pace myself to finish during the full run of a show. Regardless, I got something down.

Victorian Horror Troupe Phantasmagoria thunders onto the stage with the newest entry in their long running Halloween main stage series. They bring to life the tales and poetry of Edgar Allan Poe through their evocative storytelling, Phantastical dance, explosive stage combat, puppetry, projections, original music and MUCH more!

From the haunted stirrings of The Raven to the sheer terror of The Tell Tale Heart. . . and from the grim tolling of The Bells to the bittersweet grieving of Anabelle Lee along with a selection of other whimsical, macabre, and terrifying stories and poems, you are invited to celebrate an evening of Poe’s works. The perfect way to usher in the Halloween season!

The show runs October 6-8  at the Alexis and Pugh theater. Tickets are $35.