Fall COVID Colors

Posted on by Thor

Emerging COVID variants and waning immunity means there will be a wave of COVID infections in the fall and winter of 2022. BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5 are subsiding but other variants are in the wings to take it’s place. The effort to roll out a bi-valiant booster to combat the new variants has been anemic at best. Only 2% of Americans have opted to get the shot. Al the while Omicron is evolving with a new generation of immunity-dodging variants.

United Kingdom and some other European countries, are seeing the swift ascent of BQ.1 ( a descendant of BA5). In India, the BA.2.75 variant is on the rise. BA.2.3.20, is growing quickly in Singapore, and has turned up in Denmark and Australia. BQ.1.1 (a member of the BQ.1 family with one extra spike change) and BA.2.75.2 are the most immune evasive, being able to dodge most neutralizing antibodies elicited by infection with BA.5. That means your past infection will not protect you from being re infected.

BA.4.6, dubbed Aeterna by variant trackers on Twitter, is slowly but steadily climbing toward the top of the mountain of variants in the U.S. In early October 2022 it accounted for 14% of cases in the United States. It’s growth is exponential. Aeterna appears to have a nearly 6% growth advantage over BA.5, according to an Oct. 7 technical brief from the United Kingdom Health Security Agency.

I am sure your head is swimming with all the different variants which are competing to infect us. Those who have gotten vaccinated have some protection from severe disease and death but the anti vaccine folks are shit out of luck.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, predicts a coming wave of infections that will swell in October and peak in late December or early January. So far no single variant has become undeniable the most dominate. I would put my money on BA.4.6 to be knocking on your door this fall season.

COVID Variant Pile Up

Posted on by Thor

Rather than becoming a seasonal virus, variants of COVID-19 like BA 4 and BA 5 are piling up one one another, with one variant quickly rising on the heals of another. You can be sure another variant will follow ion the heals of BA 5.  BA 5 is rampant right now in America and in England. Long COVID is as rampant with BA 5 as it was in previous variants like Delta. With so many people getting re-infected with BA 5, the chances of Long COVID symptoms are a growing concern.

The following are percentages of of total laboratory confirmed infections in triple vaccinated people who are complaining of symptoms after 12 to 16 weeks after infection.

Delta, 5%, BA 1, 4.5%, BA 2, 4.2% Unfortunately vaccines are not offering very good protection against long COVID.

We are in the midst of a huge BA 5 surge right now. President Biden is infected as are a number of Democrats who attended a Democratic Convention in Tampa Florida. My household just had a positive case of COVID and we managed to contain it under quarantine. BA 5 spread all over the world at an incredible rate while most people went about life as if there were no pandemic.

No political has the balls to suggest re-imposing masking, or social distancing requirements. They all fear the backlash. Instead mild “suggestions” are offered. “In the face of BA.5, the Administration is encouraging Americans to use at-home tests before attending large, indoor gatherings, traveling, or visiting indoors with immunocompromised individuals.”

Immune Escape

Posted on by Thor

The pandemic has never followed a simple linear path. New variants pinball around as people ignore the virus, and continually change the game.

In Early May 2022, The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) designated the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants as variants of concern (VOC) and said they could fuel increases in infections in the region in the weeks and months ahead.

At least 24 countries outside of South Africa have now reported the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants. In US developments, key outbreak markers continue to rise, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. New daily cases are now over 100,000 and that is of course an under count. If you just go by your social media contacts who have been infected it seems the virus is everywhere.

With 12% to 13% growth advantage over BA.2, the ECDC estimated that BA.5 will become dominant. The growth advantage is probably due to immune escape from earlier infection, including from the original Omicron variant, and vaccination. Vaccine protection against Omicron infection has been shown to wane over time, though it still protected against hospitalization and death. Countries should have plans in place for the rapid deployment of booster doses for individuals who are 60 years and older to combat this immune escape.