Lollapalooza was a four day concert event in Chicago which wrapped up on August 1, 2021. An estimated 100,000 people attended.
Leading up to the festival, Chicago’s COVID-19 daily case rate was quintuple what it was a month ago. It does not take a seasoned epidemiologist to see that this will be a super spreader event. You can be sure that there will be a sharp increase in cases of COVID-19 in Chicago and the surrounding area in two weeks time.
Concert goers had to show proof of vaccination or a COVID test that was negative to attend. Videos posted showed staff barely checking vaccination cards on entry. The Delta variant is proving quite successful at breaking through and infecting fully vaccinated individuals. When a vaccinated person get the virus they may be asymptomatic or just show symptoms of a common cold. Their airways however can carry as much of the virus as an unvaccinated person and they can easily spread the virus to 8 or 9 other people. The ancestral strains of COVID -19 only spread to 2 or 3 other people
A study from Israel shows that the Pfizer vaccine is showing decreasing efficacy over time. The study found that there was only a 41% symptomatic protection against getting infected. The original protection against symptomatic infection when the shots were first given was 90%. Dr. John Campbell from England speculates that the timing between vaccine doses accounts for this reduction in efficacy. Israel had 3 weeks between shots. The UK had 8 weeks or more between shots and the efficacy is over twice as high. In the United States we have 3 weeks between doses just as in Israel. It is fair to assume that vaccinated individuals in the United States have an increasing chance of infection over time but remain safe from severe disease and death.
In May 2021 Lollapalooza festival goers were told they needed to show a negative COVID-19 test taken 24 hours or less before entering, that number was increased to 72 hours, allowing a much longer window to theoretically contract the virus before the festival. Earlier this month, the Verknipt festival in the Netherlands admitted unvaccinated attendees as long as they had a negative test taken within 40 hours of entering. The festival was later linked to 1,000 COVID-19 cases among its 20,000 attendees. So if that math holds up Lollapalooza may result in 5000 or more infections. Now lets say those 5000 people spread the virus to 8 friends and family. That would be 40,000 people infected.
At the Rolling Loud hip-hop festival in Miami two weekends ago. Tens of thousands of people showed up daily to the festival, which did not require masks, vaccinations or negative tests. Last week, the rapper Dess Dior and the actor Alexa Leighton, among others, announced on social media that they had tested positive for COVID-19. Their infections coincided with a larger spike in Florida at large, in which COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have risen dramatically.
Lollapalooza was an outdoor event but the hundreds of thousands of people were packed in like sardines. Delta has also proven effective at spreading better outdoors. It has spread at soccer matches. Basically anyone who went to Lollapalooza who was not vaccinated is at a very high risk of getting infected and having severe symptoms. When I saw photos of the crowds I just could not believe what I was seeing. This was absolute insanity and Chicago’s Mayor Lori Lightfoot seemed to think it was a great idea.
Post script: As of September 6, 2021, according to Chicago City officials there are 200 confirmed cases of COVID-19 associated with the Lollapalooza concerts.