New Strain Hurricane

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Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm recently told NBC that the new COVID-19 strains could create a new wave of cases. “The surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks,” he said.

“The hurricane is coming. Because of this surge, we have to call an audible,” he said. “If we get a number of first doses in people, particularly 65-years-of-age and older, we can really do a lot to reduce the number of serious illnesses and deaths in this next big surge, which is coming.”

“We do have to call an audible. I think there’s no doubt about it. The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks, and if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tells we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said Sunday.

“That hurricane is coming. So I think we have to understand that because of this surge, we do have to call audible,” he said. This means he is advising that the distribution plan delay the second vaccine dose to prioritize first doses for as many seniors 65+ as possible.

“You and I are sitting on this beach where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze,” Osterholm said. “But I see that hurricane five, category five or higher, 450 miles offshore. And, you know, telling people to evacuate on that nice blue sky day is going to be hard.”

Researchers from the University of Washington warned over the weekend that the new COVID-19 strains — like those from South Africa, the United Kingdom and Brazil — could create a deadly spike in the U.S. this spring, according to The Boston Herald. The U.K. variant, dubbed B.1.1.7, was first identified in the U.S. in late December but is thought to have been around as early as October. It’s soon expected to become the dominant strain of virus in the U.S.

While the strain has shown to be significantly more infectious and may cause more serious illness, the current vaccines being distributed seem to be effective in combating the variant.

Super Spreader Bowl

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The 55th Super Bowl is sure to be the cause of an increase in COVID-19 cases nation wide. The NFL tried to make the stands safe in Tampa, by limiting attendance to 22,000 fans, 7,500 of which were vaccinated health care workers. It seems a strange idea to honor health care workers while packing 22,000 fans into a stadium. Other seats had been sold for $100 and fans sent in photos which were made into cut outs to fill the empty seats.

In a video message before the Super Bowl, President Joe Biden called for a moment of silence for the 460,000 Americans who had died from COVID-19. Boos could be heard from fans in attendance. In the few televised views of the stands fans could be seen without masks or wearing them as chin straps. It became clear at game time that fans were seated too close together in the stadium defying any possible 6 feet of social distancing.

In Tampa, Mayor Jane Castor announced a temporary ordinance requiring that masks be worn outside in several popular gathering spots. The order states that violators could be fined $500 as a “last resort.” Another ordinance requires masks at any indoor location when social distancing is not possible. That would include many bars and restaurants but not private residences. It became clear that these ordinances were ignored and not enforced. Thousands of mask less fans flooded the streets of Ybor City in Tampa after the game. This scene was played out all across the country in bars and pubs.

Case numbers are finally dropping all across the country but new variants are arriving which make the virus much more efficient at infecting more people. Health officials fear the game could seed new cases at exactly the wrong time. Mask It Or Casket said on Twitter, “There are too many people in this stadium. Go crawl in a hole and disappear, DeSantis.” Florida Governor Ron DeathSantis who was at the game did not wear a mask. Rep. Ron Wright (R of TX)  died of COVID-19 on Super Spreader Sunday.

The CDC urged fans not to hold Super Bowl parties this year. They advised fans to have outdoor viewing party using a projector screen and of course wear a mask with two or more layers, avoid direct contact like handshakes or hugs, bring in fresh air through windows and doors, and encourage guests to bring their own food and drinks. Even if fan at Super Bowl parties started with good intentions they are sure to have let their guard down after taking a drink any time an announcer said, “Sukup.” Though the CDC advised watching the game at home, there were many local bars and pubs which held Super Spreader Bowl Parties.

Some rabid  fans dress eerily similar to the QAnon Shaman who was one of the many insurrectionists arrested after the attack on democracy.  The most impotent lesson from this game is that the team with the most points won the game. This is a simple concept most former presidential supporters don’t get.

Pre-Pandemic: Miami Beach

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In October of 2019, Urban Sketchers Orlando went to Miami Beach to do find sketch locations for our participation in the upcoming Art Deco Festival in Miami Beach. We went to the art Deco Museum to plan a series of workshops to be held during the festival and then as a group went to several sites to sketch.

Here we are sketching the Essex House, (1001 Collins Ave, Miami Beach, FL) one block from the ocean. The Hurricane of 1926 wiped away the exclusive hotels of the past, and there was little cash flow available to re-build following the Stock Market Crash of 1929. Jewish families were able to lay claim to land south of Lincoln Road, developing what would become South Beach. The beach became accessible to middle-class families. Architects and investors favored terrazzo floors over costly marble and employed architectural features like “eyebrows” above windows to keep rooms without air-conditioning shaded from the Florida sun.

Henry Hohauser gained recognition for his unique architectural style and his work on other hotels that lined Ocean Drive. In 1938, he was tasked with designing and supervising the construction of the Essex House. Hohauser took on a nautical theme for the project. His work featured porthole windows, a tall spire, and decorative railings to reference the ocean liners of the 20th century. Local artist, Earl La Pan to paint an Everglades scene over the fireplace.

Miami was able to recover from the Great Depression much quicker than many other cities in America thanks to illegal gambling. In these Art Deco hotels, it was not uncommon to have “secret” gambling rooms tucked away behind the lobby.  Al Capone hosted his weekly card games at the Essex House. In January of 1942 the Essex House was raided and the owner was arrested on charges of operating an illegal gambling house.

In State

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Brian D. Sicknick, the Capitol officer who died defending the building from insurrectionists is just the fifth person to have that honor. He lay in state on February 3, 2021.

On January 6, 2021 at the direction of the former President a riotous mob stormed the building. The mob chanted that they wanted to kill Vice President Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi. Five people died that day.

The Senators and Congress were evacuated to safe locations just moments before the mob forced their way into the chambers. Lawmakers passes within 65 feet of the mob wandering the halls. Some insurrectionists carried zip ties to restrain lawmakers. Had Capitol police not put up the resistance the did the death toll might have been much higher.

“Blessed are the peacekeepers like Brian,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader. “Let us be peacekeepers now in his memory.” The chief, as well as the top security officials in the House and the Senate, all resigned in the aftermath of the riot. President Joe Biden and his wife Jill placed their hands over their hearts in honor. “We must be vigilant as what President Lincoln referred to as the harsh artillery of time. We will never forget,” Ms. Pelosi said during the ceremony.

Citing two law enforcement officials, the New York Times reported that Sicknick was struck with a fire extinguisher at some point during the breach of Congress. However, reports of an attack have not been confirmed. “Nearly 140 Capitol Police and Metropolitan Police officers were injured in the assault. Some were not issued helmets, and one officer was stabbed with a metal fence stake. Another has two cracked ribs and two smashed spinal disks, and a third is going to lose his eye.” Gus Papathanasiou, the Capitol Police Union chairman, said in a statement. Two other officers have committed suicide since the attack on the capitol.

Phil Raia: A Look Back at Stonewall

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Phil Raia is an activist. 18 transsexual women of color were murdered and that is not being addressed. Transsexuals were barred from the military under the Trump administration. Religious rights were being put in the forefront ahead of human rights. The country was founded on the separation of church and state. When religious leaders preach sermons of hate and are embraced by the political elite that is concerning.

He went to NYC to attend a protest where about 50,000 people marched from Christopher Street up to Central Park. The main Pride Parade was a commercial enterprise and he preferred to be with old friends who raised their voices against injustice. The event was in honor of the 50th anniversary of Stonewall. He knows some of the people who were a part of Stonewall. Stonewall was a raid on a club. He had been there many times. He lived across from the club on Christopher Street.

Three of the windows of his apartment faced Christopher street and he felt like he was on the runway. He was not in the Stonewall when the event actually happened. There are still questions about who threw the shot glass or who threw the brick. We may never really know exactly what transpired there. The reality is that the cops entered, which was happening more and more. There was a political rationale behind these raids. At the time you could loose your job if you were found to be in a gay establishment. It was something that happened at the right time because of the right circumstances. In the late 50s there was McCarthyism. Then came a time of thinking outside the box, followed by the peace movement, the women’s right movement, the civil rights movement. These were the bedrock behind the Stonewall movement. Really the part of the Stonewall occurrence that was most important wasn’t the event itself, it was the people who came around the next day and communed with those more directly effected by it. It was the awakening that they were oppressed.  The Gay Liberation Front (GLF) grew giving the movement the lift it needed.

 

Central Florida COVID Fines

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Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings created an Orange County Code Enforcement Strike Team that goes to Central Florida businesses to see if they are enforcing safety guidelines such as social distancing and face coverings.

First-time offenders could get away with a warning. Fines begin at $500. Fines of $1,000 to $5,000 per day could be issued for repeat violations and a $15,000 fine could be issued for “irreparable or irreversible” violations like a “super-spreader” event.

Since Florida’s phase three re-opening in September 2020, pictures have surfaced outside local businesses of big crowds and few coronavirus safety protocols.

Demings’ order specifically says it does not conflict with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ order which suspends the collection of fines and penalties associated with COVID-19 which is “enforced upon individuals.” Demings says that because his order calls for a non-criminal code enforcement penalty on businesses.

Three Orange County businesses received citations and 19 got warnings over a nine-day period that began on New Year’s Eve as the county continued its crackdown on establishments that fail to maintain coronavirus safety standards. Over 6,000 businesses have received visits. In all, 98% have been in compliance with executive orders.

Among the businesses fined are, nightclubs like Celine and Social in downtown Orlando, The Knights Pub and Infyniti Nightclub near UCF.

Restaurants fined include, Country House Restaurant, Hank’s Crab Shack and Seafood, Hong Fu, Napoli Pizza & Sub, Tin Roof, Truffoire, a kiosk at The Florida Mall.

Other assorted businesses include, 7-Eleven at 3000 W. Colonial Drive, Knight Library, Universal Hyundai, and USA Smoke Shop.

LA Anti-Vaxers

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The L.A. Dodger’s Stadium parking lots have been converted into the largest vaccination sit in America. Los Angeles County has administered 790,902 doses of the vaccine, as of January 25, according to its Department of Public Health.

Several dozen to 50 anti vaccination protestors shut down the site for a brief 55 minutes on January 30, 2021. Most protesters were not wearing masks. Hundreds of cars waited in line outside the site for an hour until the demonstrators were moved to the sidewalk.

Online communication among the protestors confirmed that they wanted everyone to avoid wearing Pro Trump hats or merchandise so they could be taken seriously. No arrests were made.

CNN reported that the vaccine program is a joint effort between the mayor’s office and the fire department, Los Angeles Fire Department spokesman David Ortiz said Saturday. Vaccine appointments run from 8 a.m. until 8 p.m. and more appointments will be offered “as soon as we receive another allotment of vaccinations,” he said.

L.A. County Supervisor Hilda Solis called the protest an “intentional sabotage of an effort to keep our community healthy.” On February 2, 2021, the Los Angeles Police Department Chief, Chief Michel Moore vowed to make arrests if protestors once again attempt to disrupt the site.

Velcro Virus Mutations

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Mutations of the COVID-19 virus are becoming more sticky. They appear to help the virus transmit more readily and evade the immune system. There are three known mutations of the killer coronavirus named for where they were discovered: the United Kingdom (B117 and E484K), the Brazilian (P1) and the South African.

The Palm Beach Post reported, The first wave of vaccines now being administered blocks the protein of the spiky virus from attaching to a human cell. Some of the mutations are already ahead of the vaccine, evolving a slightly altered spike much like Velcro.

In lab experiments, these mutations have withstood therapeutic antibodies that worked previously against the original strain of COVID-19.

The CDC said there were 92 cases of the U.K. mutant in Florida, as of January 30, 2021, outpacing 26 other states. This is the same variant that caused a huge spike of cases in California. The U.K mutant is more transmissible than the original COVID-19 virus and might be more deadly. The U.K mutant allows Covid-19 to escape antibody protection. This mutant shares some of the genetic signature of variants linked to South Africa and Brazil. A mutant already known to be more transmissible also risks becoming somewhat resistant to the immune protection offered by vaccines, or more likely to cause reinfection among people who were previously infected, experts say. Antibodies appear less able to bind to spike proteins arising from the mutation. The B.1.1.7 strain first spotted in the UK has now been found in at least 70 countries worldwide, including about 470 known cases in the US, according to the CDC.

The South African variant has been found in Maryland. This version appears to lower the efficacy of a current vaccine, according to studies. The South African strain has developed three mutations in its spikes, one that is the same as the U.K. variant, one that has a stronger impact on vaccinated individuals and another that remains a mystery.

It is believed that the Brazilian (P1) mutant eludes the human immune response triggered by infection from the original COVID-19 virus. P.1 adds to concerns because it is causing ravaging a country where there should be a high level of immunity, since three quarters of the residents of Manaus, Brazil had been previously infected by COVID-19. With the second wave of COVID, hospitals have run out of oxygen.

Dr. Larry Bush, an epidemiologist and immediate past president of the Palm Beach County Medical Society said the variants have changed the landscape for the future, calling them “more sticky.” A more sticky virus means more infections and therefor more deaths. Thus far, vaccines made by Moderna and Pfizer seem to work against the new mutants. He said pharmaceutical companies can tweak the vaccine to address the COVID mutations. He sees a future where the vaccine will be effective on up to four most prevalent strains in any given year — just like a flu shot.

Michael Farzan, a professor in Scripps Department of Immunology and Microbiology said, “If any part of the world has uncontrolled mutations, everyone is under threat.” “We’re not protected until the entire world is protected. The South African variant is a warning shot.”

Experts say that aggressive testing, adhering to Covid-19 guidelines , like social distancing, wearing masks and hand washing, and rapidly rolling out vaccines are more important than ever in light of these spreading mutants.

No Vaccine to Gitmo

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Waterboarding is a form of torture that was started with the Spanish Inquisition and was then practiced at Guantanamo Bay. The interrogation victim is placed on a board at an incline and water is poured onto their face covered in a wet towel. Water enters the nose cavity and mouth restricting both airways and causing a gag reflex.

The water pour could last up to 20 seconds, then be paused, then another 20 seconds, paused, then 40 seconds. The subject is slowly drowning. Typically, the subject spasms, expels water and snot, sometimes vomit, thrashes and flops on the gurney as if having a seizure.

The incline keeps water from entering the lungs which avoids drowning. Every breath becomes a horrific gurgling struggle. This is very much the same struggle that is achieved by COVID-19 infecting the lungs. People drown in their own lung fluids. Waterboarding was forbidden in 2006.

Pentagon chief spokesman John Kirby said in a tweet January 30, 2021 that the Defense Department would be “pausing” the plan to give vaccinations to those held at Guantanamo while it reviews measures to protect troops who work there.

The base has 1,500 U.S. troops who work at the prison, and 40 prisoners, among them the accused mastermind of the 9/11 attack. Some public health experts and criminal justice advocates have argued that incarcerated people should be high on the priority list to receive the vaccine, as many are detained in tight quarters and are in close contact with prison staff, creating ripe conditions for a widespread Covid-19 breakout. The Pentagon in March 2020 prohibited commanders from publicly reporting new coronavirus cases among their personnel.

The U.S. opened the detention center in January 2002 to hold detainees suspected of links to al-Qaida and the Taliban. Those who remain include five men facing a trial by military commission for their alleged roles planning and aiding the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The pandemic delayed military commission proceedings at Guantánamo, including the joint death-penalty trial for the men accused of plotting the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks, which had initially been scheduled to begin January 11, 2021.

 

 

Pre-Pandemic: Craft Beer Fest

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I had a magnificent student in my Elite Animation Urban Sketching Class. She had noticed on the drive to Elite that a festival was setting up in Windermere, Florida so we decided to head over to sketch.

We set up outside the town hall an watched as a band set up their sound equipment on the main stage. They were lugging speakers a drum set and various guitars the entire time we sketched. I was getting my student to focus on capturing at least one active gesture in the final sketch. I chose to include one guy bending over holding a speaker.

Often people repeat the same pose again and again so I had her looking for this as well. As we settled in and added watercolor to the sketches, the band began to do a sound check and we got to enjoy a short concert as they listened to the sound levels.

Tents were being set up all along the main street as well. As we finished up and gt ready to return to the classroom, people had started lining up to order arm bands which would allow them to taste as many samples as they wanted. I am more intrigued by the moments before an actual event.  There is an energy in the panic and hurry of getting ready for a possible crowd.