We are in the midst of the worst of the Delta wave of the pandemic right now, but there is talk of learning to live with the virus. Endemic means, “in the population, restricted or peculiar to a locality or region.
Unlike Ebola which was contained, this virus has been allowed to rage out of control. It is likely that everyone will at some point be infected by COVID-19. Herd immunity is impossible with so many people unvaccinated. People have the choice to be vaccinated before they are infected which protected from severe illness and death, or get infected without getting vaccinated. A vast majority of the people dying from COVID-19 in southern hospitals right now are unvaccinated.
Professor Andrew Pollard of the Oxford Vaccine Team has said that it is clear that vaccinated people can become infected and they can spread the virus around though they are more than 90% protected from hospitalization or death. Only 50% of fully vaccinated individuals however will be protected from infection. This will make achieving herd immunity near impossible. You will at some point come in contact with the virus. Nothing available stops the transmission of the virus. More infectious variants are possible in the future. A winter wave is inevitable.
Viruses spread where there are enough susceptible individuals and in America there are plenty of people who have refused to get vaccinated and they are ample fuel too keep the virus burning. The virus will not disappear on its own. The hope is that enough people will gain immune protection from vaccination and from natural infection such that there will be less transmission and much less COVID-19-related hospitalization and death, even as the virus continues to circulate.
If everyone will be infected then mass testing becomes a mute point. Instead, testing might only be done on a clinical basis. German chancellor Andrea Merkel is ending free testing starting October 11, 2021. It will be less important to record every case of COVID-19 as the virus becomes endemic. In the future, testing might be limited to people who are sick enough to go to the hospital. For unvaccinnated individuals that is often too late.
The 1918 Spanish Flu took about 3 years to become endemic, but outbreaks flared up again in 1968 and 2009. Like COVID-19 the Spanish Flu had a tame first wave which built complacency, and then much more deadly subsequent waves. In America 675,000 died from the 1918 Spanish Flu. To date 653,265 Americans have died from COOVID-19, so it looks like we will exceed the number of deaths from the Spanish Flu. New modeling shows that the virus is spreading from older adults to younger children as COVID-19 becomes endemic. COVID-19 may behave like other common-cold coronaviruses, affecting mostly young children who have not have been vaccinated or exposed to the virus.