Tip of the Iceberg

Posted on by Thor

The BMJ reported that as of May 3, 2021 official figures suggested that the Global deaths from covid-19 was 3.27 million. However a study from the University of Washington suggests that the pandemic’s true overall toll will reach 9.43 million deaths by September 2021. The report, based its conclusions on the past year’s deviations from expected overall mortality.

The report states that the virus is claiming about 33,000 lives a day around the world, more than twice reported figures. They estimated the true United States death toll at 905,289 compared with an official figure of 574,043.

In India the disparity between the official reported deaths to the horrors on the ground of hundreds of bodies floating down the Ganges river and crematoria unable to keep up with demand make it obvious that death numbers are far higher than reported. India is forecast to lose a further 842,000 people by September 2021.

Countries who are believed to have under reported Covid-19 deaths include Egypt, India, Mexico, and Russia. India’s death toll as of May 2021 was estimated as 654,395, which is 2.96 times the official figure. Mexico was attributed 617,127 deaths, 2.83 times the official figure. Egypt, was attributed 170,041 deaths, which is 12.6 times the official figure. Russia has the largest number of unreported deaths, they estimate, with a real death toll of 593,610, which is 5.43 times the official estimate. While some governments may attribute deaths in Covid patients to co-morbid conditions to keep their numbers low, the commonest reason for under reporting of Covid-19 deaths is inadequate testing.

Turkey and Brazil are often accused of under counting, but both were reporting more than half of their Covid-19 deaths. Many countries of central and eastern Europe were reporting only one death in three, a ratio also seen across sub-Saharan Africa. The worst under counts were found in the Caucuses and former Soviet republics.

#StayHome

Posted on by Thor

As County Mayor Jerry Demings and City Mayor Buddy Dyer were giving a Covid-19 pandemic briefing inside the County Administration Building, an itty bitty crowd of protestors assembled outside. Protestors were demanding that the state re-open in the midst of the pandemic.  Jerry Demings said “In my humble opinion, it’s much of a circus. Perhaps one person has
the right to risk their health and safety, but they don’t have the right
to endanger the health and safety of others in the community. I
wouldn’t want to play Russian roulette with myself like that.” 

Buddy Dyer said, “So, there are some people that don’t accept science or facts, and I
suspect that’s a bunch of them that are out front. What I’d probably do
is suggest they speak to family members of someone who has died of
COVID-19. Maybe that would wake them up a little bit.”

Facebook has begun closing down some sites that promote the anti say
at home protests. They will not close every site. The protests run afoul
of the states’ social distancing guidelines, Facebook spokesman Andy
Stone said. The problem is that the POTUS himself who in a series of
tweets on Friday appeared to condone people
disobeying rules intended to blunt Covid-19, many based on his
own recommendations.
People are justifiably on edge, with unemployment souring and the
promise of the next meal on the table is uncertain. Strange conspiracy
theories flicker to life in this wasteland of despair. 

As far as reopening the state’s economy, Gov. Blue Glove (DeSantis) has faced criticism for suggesting that schools could soon reopen. On Monday April 20, 2020, just 18 days into his 30 day stay at home order, he unveiled his Re-Open Florida Task Force, a 22-person panel
that has until Friday to come up with recommendations for cracking open
the state’s economy more than a month after it started to seize up. Gov. Blue Gloves instinct is to open the state quickly.

He announced that beaches were permitted to reopen Friday April, 17, 2020, if they
could do so safely; by early evening, some beaches in north Florida had
removed police barriers, allowing residents to stroll and surf. Photos of huge crowds on Jacksonville beaches triggered the well deserved hashtag #FloridaMorons. “No chairs, coolers, sunbathing, or towels/blankets laid out to sit on,”
read a tweet from the city of Jacksonville’s official account. Florida’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic was and continues to be haphazard. He only closed the beaches when images of spring breakers partying in large crowds garnered headlines.

Cumulative cases of Covid-19 have been rising steadily in Florida. Daily deaths from COVID-19 also showed a glimmer of hope in the past
several days in Florida, according to FDOH’s provisional data. Daily
deaths in the state from the new virus peaked at 43 deaths on April 6,
but dipped to 14 deaths on April 18.

Some modelling of the disease shows signs of hope, as well. The
University of Washington model, relied on by the White House at the
beginning of the outbreak, this week lowered its prediction
to 1,363 deaths in Florida from the virus by Aug. 4, down from an April
4 run of the model that had predicted 6,770 deaths in Florida through
the Aug. 4 “first wave,” with a high estimate of 11,242 deaths and a low
estimate of 3,629 deaths in the state. However low case numbers result from inconsistent and or insufficient testing.

As of April 21. 2020 the number of Covid-19 cases topped 27,000 with 823 deaths in Florida.