Future of Cruising

Posted on by Thor

There had been at least 3,689 COVID-19 or coronavirus-like illness cases on cruise ships in U.S. waters, “in addition to at least 41 reported deaths,” the CDC said last October 2020. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that all people avoid travel on cruise ships, including river cruises, worldwide. That’s because the chance of getting COVID-19 on cruise ships is high, since the virus appears to spread more easily between people in close quarters aboard ships.

Florida Governor Ron DeathSantis (R) is threatening to sue the federal government if the CDC doesn’t allow cruises to restart by the summer. The cruise industry is worth billions of dollars for the state’s economy, according to the Associated Press (AP).

University of Florida epidemiologist Cindy Prins told AP it’s “too early” for cruises to resume, given the higher risk of the virus spreading among passengers mingling on ships for long periods. She noted that “testing and symptom screening are not perfect methods of prevention.” Prins added companies would have to limit passenger numbers, with crews required to show they’re fully vaccinated in order to lower the risk of the virus spreading — something DeathSantis opposes, and no industry leader addressed. DeathSantis also opposed COVID-19 vaccine passports.

Florida became one of the world’s epicenters for the virus last July, forcing DeathSantis to pause the state’s first round of reopening. He fully lifted restrictions on restaurants last September, as part of a commitment to reopen the economy, saying “we’re not closing anything going forward.” He never set up a statewide mandate to wear masks.

Major U.S. cruise lines are accepting bookings for June 2021 trips out of Florida ports, a Spectrum News review has found. The bookings come as Norwegian Cruise Line this month canceled all cruises through June 2021. “The timing for re-start in the U.S. continues to be uncertain,” On April 6, 2021 Carnival said in a statement to Spectrum News. On April 6, 20211, Carnival Cruise extended its pause of all operations out of U.S. ports through June 30, 2021.

Original Sin

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The Original Sin of the United States response to the COVID-19 Pandemic was the inability to get enough tests to isolate and contain the outbreak. The US missed a critical window to ramp up testing and implement precautionary procedures to get on top of the virus.

January 2020: The World Health Organization opted to use an approach developed by Germany to test for COVID-19. The United States instead decided to develop its own testing approach. The German testing method was made public on January 13, 2020 and the American testing method was made public on January 28 2020. The American tests were defective and gave inaccurate readings. Because of this, The United States had a very slow start in widespread testing. The CDC gave restrictive guidelines on who could be eligible for COVID-19 testing. The initial criteria were people who had recently traveled to certain countries, or people with respiratory illness serious enough to require hospitalization, or people who have been in contact with a person confirmed to have coronavirus.

On February 19, 2020 the first U.S. patient with COVID-19 of unknown origin (a possible indication of community transmission) was hospitalized. The patient’s test was delayed for four days because he had not qualified for a test under the initial federal testing criteria. By February 27, 2020 fewer than 4,000 tests had been conducted in the U.S. Although academic laboratories and hospitals had developed their own tests, they were not allowed to use them until February 29, 2020 when the FDA issued approvals for them and private companies.

On February 25, 2020 a group of researchers from the Seattle Flu Study defied federal and state officials to conduct their own tests, using samples already collected from flu study subjects who had not given permission for COVID-19 testing. They quickly found a teenager infected with COVID-19 of unknown origin, indicating that an outbreak had already been occurring in Washington State for the past six weeks. State regulators stopped these researchers’ testing on March 2, 2020.

On March 5, 2020 Vice President Mike Pence, the leader of the coronavirus response team, acknowledged that “we don’t have enough tests” to meet the predicted future demand. By March 11, 2020 the U.S had tested fewer than 10,000 people. On March 12, 2020 Dr. Anthony Fauci acknowledged “a failing” of the U.S. system and that the demand for SARS-CoV-2 tests was not being met.

The first COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and South Korea were identified at around the same time. Critics say the U.S. government has botched the approval and distribution of test kits, losing crucial time during the early weeks of the outbreak, with the result that the true number of cases in the United States was impossible to estimate with any reasonable accuracy. South Korea’s aggressive testing, contact tracing and isolation of those infected succeeded where the US response failed. They flattened the curve.

By March 22, 2020 drive-through testing had started in more than thirty states, although the Associated Press reported that “the system has been marked by inconsistencies, delays, and shortages,” leading to many people waiting hours or days even though they showed symptoms and were recommended by a doctor to get a test.

On April 6, 2020 Federal health inspectors released a report stating that hospitals were experiencing shortages of test supplies, personal protective equipment (PPE), and other resources due to extended patient stays while awaiting test results.

By early May, 2020 the U.S. was testing around 240,000 to 260,000 people per day, but this was still an inadequate level to contain the outbreak.

By June 24, 2020 thirteen of the forty-one federally funded community-based testing sites originally established in March were set to lose federal funding. They remained under state and local control. Trump administration testing czar Admiral Giroir described the original community-based testing program as “antiquated”. In June 2020 Trump said several times that the U.S. would have fewer cases of coronavirus if it did less testing—”If we didn’t do testing, we would have no cases”—and he told a June rally that he had ordered a slowdown in testing. In July 2020 he continued to suggest that “if we did half the testing we would have half the cases”.

In August 2020 the CDC quietly lowered its recommendation for who should be tested, saying that people who have been exposed to the virus but are not showing symptoms “do not necessarily need a test”. The previous recommendation had been that people exposed to the virus should be “quickly identified and tested” even if they are not showing symptoms, because asymptomatic people can still spread the virus.

In December, 2020 the FDA authorized the use of a rapid testing kit developed by Brisbane, Australia-based Ellume Health. The test is available for purchase without a prescription for about $30 and can give results in about 20 minutes. The FDA approved the test for people with and without COVID symptoms.

Effective January 26, 2021 the CDC will require all air passengers two years of age and over entering the United States (including U.S. citizens and Legal Permanent Residents) to present a negative COVID-19 test, taken within three calendar days of departure​, or proof of recovery from the virus within the last 90 days.

March 5, 2021 the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to Cue Health Inc. for its over-the-counter at-home diagnostic test for COVID-19. As of March 9, 2021, there are 340 tests and sample collection devices are authorized by the FDA under EUAs.

Joe Biden met his goal of 100000 vaccine shots in arms early (58 days) and reset his goal for 200000 shots in arms in his first 100 days. He called for Americans to do their part to end the pandemic by wearing masks and keeping up social distancing as the vaccine rollout ramps up. “We’re in a war with this virus,” he said. Had testing been rolled out with the same level of resolve, hundreds of thousands of lives could have been saved.

 

Nursing Home Numbers

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At the beginning of the pandemic I was impressed by Andrew Cuomo‘s power point daily briefings about the COVID-19 crisis. He seemed a voice of reason and the former 45th U.S. President was pushing bleach and hydoxycloriquine as miracle cures. They are not cures they are deadly distractions.

In the early days Cuomo required nursing homes to accept Covid-19 positive patients when New York’s hospitals were overflowing. There was a statistically significant increase in resident deaths in nursing homes that accepted hospital transfers.

Now he has admitted to hiding data about deaths of New York State nursing home residents. He obscured public health data for political gain. The state’s official COVID-19 death count in nursing home is roughly 8,700 right now. A 56 percent increase on that count would bring the total deaths to well over 13,000.

The Cuomo administration managed to keep much of that nursing home data under wraps until late January, 2021 when the dam broke. The Democratic state attorney general published a bombshell accusation that the administration under counted nursing home deaths by more than 50%. The Associated Press showed more than 9,000 recovering Covid-19 patients were transferred from nursing homes to hospitals, which was 40% higher than the previously disclosed number. The New York Post then reported that one of Cuomo’s top aides claimed the administration hid data on nursing home deaths to avoid political retribution from Trump.

It remains unclear what level of accountability Cuomo will face. Even if Cuomo dodges criminal or civil liability, he will still face political accountability at the hands of voters. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is touting his success battling the virus but the state has surpasses 10,000 nursing home deaths as well.

Sputnik V

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Russian President Vladimir Putin just approved a COVID-19 vaccine for use in tens of thousands of people, though it has not been thoroughly tested for effectiveness. One of Putin’s daughters had received the inoculation.  “She has taken part in the experiment,” Putin said, according to the Associated Press.

The vaccine was named Sputnik V, in reference to the world’s first artificial satellite, launched during the space race back in the 1960s. Putin said, “We must be grateful to those who made that first step very important for our country and the entire world,” Putin said in a cabinet meeting Tuesday morning, August 11, 2020 in reference to the vaccine developers. There is no published data from early human tests of the vaccine and no late-stage human trials currently underway. Early human tests of the Russian vaccine began in mid-June and included 76 participants, but no data from those trials has been released, according to The Associated Press. 

Scientists worry that there was no phase 3 clinical trial, which is the final stage of testing required for a vaccine to be approved. Phase 3 trials, which include thousands to 30 thousand volunteers, can compare rates of infection between those who are vaccinated and those who get a placebo. In other words, only phase 3 trials can demonstrate that a vaccine prevents COVID-19 infection.

Russia plans to begin such tests of its already approved vaccine on Aug. 12, 2020. Kirill Dmitriev, chief executive of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, told reporters, according to The Associated Press. The phase 3 trial will include “several thousand” participants from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines and possibly Brazil, Dmitriev said. But before any data from that trial becomes available, Russia will offer the vaccine to tens of thousands of people, he added. “People outside of clinical trials will have access to the vaccine in August, and some, already on a massive scale, in October,” Dmitriev said.

Without phase 3 data, however, there’s no way to know the vaccine will protect most people who receive it; in addition, rare side effects associated with the vaccine may only emerge as more and more individuals get the injection. Despite not sharing solid proof that its vaccine is both safe and effective, Russia has reportedly received requests from more than 20 countries for access to Sputnik V, Dmitriev said, according to Reuters.

It will be made available first Russia’s front line public-service workers, such as medics and teachers, before being released to the general public, said Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko. Medics could have access to it as early as late August or early September, according to the agency.

In testimony to a congressional committee on July 31, 2020, Dr. Anthony Fauci said, “I do hope that the Chinese and the Russians are actually testing the vaccine before they are administering the vaccine to anyone. Because claims of having a vaccine ready to distribute before you do testing is, I think, problematic at best.” according to CNN. Fauci added that he remained optimistic that the US would be able to produce its own vaccine by the end of the year, while not cutting corners with safety standards.

Researchers around the world are developing more than 165 vaccines against the coronavirus, and 30 vaccines are in human trials. Vaccines typically require years of research and testing before reaching the clinic, but scientists are racing to produce a safe and effective vaccine by next year. Some trials will fail, and others may end without a clear result. But a few may succeed in stimulating the immune system to produce effective antibodies against the virus.

In he United States, Moderna is developing vaccines based on messenger RNA (mRNA) to produce viral proteins in the body. They have yet to bring one to the market. In partnership with National Institutes of Health, they found that the vaccine protects monkeys from the coronavirus. In March, the company put the first Covid-19 vaccine into human trials, which yielded promising results, After carrying out a Phase 2 study they launched a Phase 3 trial on July 27. The final trial will enroll 30,000 healthy people at about 89 sites around the United States. The government has bankrolled Moderna’s efforts with nearly $1 billion in support. There will be results from the Moderna study in the first quarter of 2021 at the earliest.

President Donald Trump says he’s “optimistic” that his “Operation Warp Speed” program might have a vaccine ready around Election Day, and it “wouldn’t hurt” his chances against former Vice President Joe Biden. But having a vaccine available for widespread public use before 2021 is unrealistic, according to public health experts, including the Coronavirus Task Force’s Dr. Anthony Fauci.

The Soviet Union vaccine announcement was a political PR stunt to be the first to offer a virus even if it isn’t safe or effective. Trump has already floated the idea of using disinfectants to battle the virus so it isn’t far fetched to speculate that he might also force an untested vaccine to market to help his re-election results. He doesn’t care if the voters are alive after the election.

85 Babies Infected in Texas

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85 Babies have tested positive for COVID-19 in Nueces County in Texas. This number is a reflection of when testing started in mid-March, according to a county news release. The news of the 85 infected babies follows a report from earlier this week regarding scientists’ uncertainty on the impact of COVID-19 in children.

Evidence behind what role children play in the COVID-19 pandemic and how it affects them is inconclusive. Several studies suggest but don’t prove that children are less likely to become infected and more likely to have only mild symptoms. Many kids have no symptoms, and it’s unclear how easily they can spread the virus to others.

There is some evidence that kids are less likely to catch the virus and less likely to spread it, but it’s not clear exactly how strong that evidence is. For months most families and their children have been isolated at home, limiting their chances of catching or spreading the virus. In reality, it may take reopening schools and returning children to a closer-to-normal life for the picture to come into clearer focus.

The Associated Press also reported this week on how evidence has been growing that the COVID-19 can spread from a pregnant woman to her fetus. Researchers in Italy studied 31 women with COVID-19 who delivered babies in March and April and found signs of the virus in several samples of umbilical cord blood, the placenta and, in one case, breast milk. Cases of newborns testing positive for the virus have been relatively uncommon but are not unheard of since the pandemic first took hold.

With some respiratory illnesses, like influenza, young children play an amplifying role. They don’t carry the antibodies that adults have amassed. As a result, they are more susceptible to many of the bugs that cause colds and flu, which circulate more actively as the cold weather sets in. This is why teachers are often sick with a cold each season. However COVID-19 isn’t the sniffles, it can cause death. The World Health Organization does not currently see clear answers in the data that have been collected to date.

Two weeks after Israel fully reopened schools, a COVID-19 outbreak swept through classrooms, including at least 130 cases at a single school, that led officials to close dozens of schools where students and staff were infected. At least 42 kindergartens and schools were shuttered indefinitely. More than 6,800 students and teachers were ordered home for quarantine by government order.

Florida’s largest teacher union is suing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran to overturn an emergency order that requires schools to physically open five days a week in August, despite the incredible surge in cases in the state, saying the policy bypasses local leaders and defies national public health guidelines. DeSantis is followed the lead of President Donald Trump and Education Secretary Betsy Devos, who are pressuring states to fill classrooms with students in the fall. “Governor DeSantis needs a reality check, and we are attempting to provide one,” FEA President Fedrick Ingram said in a statement.

In Tallahassee, a 19-year-old elementary school custodian died after a battle with Covid-19, and at least three people at his Leon County school, including the principal, have contracted the virus, the Tallahassee Democrat reported. About 1/3 of children tested in Florida have tested positive for the virus. To date, 16,797 children in Florida have the disease out of 54,022 tested. The data shows that 908 people under the age of 18 have tested positive for COVID-19 in Orange County, which equates to about 24% of the tests conducted on children in the county. Word of children testing positive gets around at summer camps which face pressure to act promptly.