A research team published a study in One Health that analyzed over 70,000 records related to bird flu (H5N1) from 1970 to 2016. The researchers concluded that bird flu might be the source of a new pandemic strain. Bird flu could become zoonotic, that is, transfer from animal to human.
The virus has made the jump from birds to mammals. Professor Michael Ward from the Sydney School of Veterinary Science, said, “It’s just a numbers game. Viruses jumping species is not a rare event, so it’s likely a virus will eventually make that final jump to humans.”
H5N1 has infected almost 900 people since 2003 with a death rate just shy of 52.5 percent, according to the World Health Organization. Since January 2022 in the United States, outbreaks of a branch of H5N1 known as 2.3.4.4b have affected more than 58 million fowl, resulting in the deaths or culling of most. Farms that raise poultry are reluctant to report cases since it would result in devastating financial losses.
The Philadelphia Enquirer reported that Bird Flu is hitting Pennsylvania harder than any other state. In the last 30 days, more than 215,000 birds in Pennsylvania have been affected by avian flu, meaning they are raised on farms or in backyards where the disease has been confirmed.
In the U.S., it has recently been detected in wild birds in every state, as well as in commercial poultry operations or backyard flocks in 47 states. Since the beginning of last year, tens of millions of chickens have died of the virus or been killed to stop outbreaks from spreading. The death rate among birds affected is over 50%. The bird flu has resulted is rising egg prices.
Bird Flu had made the jump to mammals. In June and July 2023, more than 150 dead or ailing seals washed ashore in Maine with the deadly virus. It is likely that wild birds introduced the virus to seals. Bird flu has also spread to minks and the virus seems to be spreading from mammal to mammal. In Vancouver, Canada skunks are being found infected with bird flu.
Globally, nearly 870 human infections and 457 deaths have been reported to the World Health Organization in 20 countries. But the pace has slowed and there have been about 170 infections and 50 deaths in the last seven years. In the vast majority of cases, the infected people got it directly from infected birds. Human to human transmission of the virus has not yet been confirmed.
Should an outbreak happen it is clear that the human race is not prepared. COVID-19 has a mortality rate of just 1% which resulted in over 6 million of deaths worldwide. Imagine an outbreak where the mortality rate jumps from 1% to over 50%. Those numbers are hard to imagine.