BA2.12.1 Over NYC

The north east is being attacked by a new and more contagious variant of Omicron.  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data released today shows BA.2.12.1, thought to be 30% more infectious than BA.2

Omicron Subvariant BA.2.12.1 will become the dominant variant in the country in the next 7-10 days. It is already driving Covid hospitalizations. New York  Governor Kathy Hochul tested positive for Covid-19 on May 9, 2022. Late night hosts Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel as well as Vice President Kamala Harris have all tested positive for COVID-19. Others include,  Broadway, the actors Matthew Broderick and Daniel Craig, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy and at least three members of the New York City Council.

New York City lifted many of its mask and vaccine requirements. It looks like they plan to face this new wave without basic mitigation measures. The prevalence of fevers across the city, which can offer a forewarning of Covid trends, has reached levels last seen at some of the worst points of the pandemic, according to data from internet-connected thermometers.

In the region comprised of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, where the sub-variant was first identified, the variant is already tied to 66% of new cases sequenced. As of the past weekend, hospitalizations and deaths in New York were up 38% and 24%, respectively.

If there is good news in the new data, it’s that the next wave of Omicron variants, called BA.4 and BA.5 which are believed  to be even more transmissible than BA.2.12.1, have not seen the same rate of spread in the U.S. since their arrival here about March 19, 2022.