Stealth Wave

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People don’t react to a wave they don’t see coming. In the North Eastern United States cases are once again beginning to rise this time because of the Stealth variant of Omicron called BA.2.

With 2 years of social distancing, masking, vaccination and hand washing you might think Americans would be ready to handle this next wave. However Americans are done with COVID-19. The vaccinated are done because the vaccines have indeed proven very effective at protecting against hospitalization and death. Getting the booster shot that is now being rolled out would also protect against infection the the upcoming months but not many are rushing out to get another booster.

With so many people now doing home tests instead of going to testing centers, it will be hard to see this new wave coming. I track hospitalizations as opposed of cases and thankfully they are relatively low after the huge spike in January of 2022. More Americans died from the Omicron that from the far more deadly Delta variant. Though less virulent, Omicron is so contagious that the incredible numbers of people infected still result in deaths.

England is experiencing the highest level of infections since the start of the pandemic and it is safe to say that America will experience a similar spike in the coming weeks. We are in the eye of the hurricane.

There’s no consensus among experts on exactly when waves begin or end, or how sharp or tall one must be to count. A wave will involve a sudden rise in cases form a baseline low. We are in that low right now. We are lucky in that cases are so low as BA.2 is taking over. With exponential growth the cases seem low for some time and then suddenly rise at alarming rates. No one can say for sure how alarming the next wave will be.

The fact is however that Americans have lifted most all restrictions and are going about life as normal as the tsunami wave quickly rushed towards the shore.

Don’t Tease the Tiger

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Dr. Gregory Poland, head of Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group made a clear analogy of where we stand todaaaaaay with the pandemic, he said, Americans are teasing the tiger by letting their guard down. BA.2 is 50 to 60% more transmissible that Omicron, which was which was 50% more transmissible than Delta, which was 50% more transmissible than Alpha. Despite this Americans are going about life feeling COVID-19 is behind them because they are tired of it. The virus doesn’t care about how tired people are, it is not done with us.

Those who reject vaccines and masks will likely face a horrible future. 1 out of every 328 Americans has died from COVID. Somehow Americans have normalized this. By pretending the pandemic is over people are not only teasing the tiger they are taunting it.

America is experiencing about 30,000 new COVID infections a day, about 18,000 in the hospitals across the US, and about 800 deaths a day. Americans seem to have normalized this level of death and infection. Everyone is out having spring parties and mass gatherings.

The story has played out many times before with a series of markers that hint that a new variant may cause a new surge in cases. That is where we are right now. We are in a quiet valley and are likely to experience another surge in the weeks ahead with BA.2. Only 65% of Americans have gotten 2 doses of vaccine, of those, less than half have gotten a booster. With BA.2 rising in America the advice remains the same, continue to wear an N95 mask indoors, and wear it over your mouth AND nose. Get fully immunized and boosted. A second booster is being made available for people over 50 years old and I plan to get that ASAP. BA.2 is coming.

Anti-Science Aggression

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There is a horrifying level of anti-science aggression in the United States coming from far right groups including some elected members of the US Congress and conservative news outlets that target scientists fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conservative news outlets repeatedly and purposefully promote disinformation designed to portray key American scientists as enemies. As a consequence, many receive threats via email and on social media, while some are stalked at home, to create an unprecedented culture of antiscience intimidation.

Prior to 2021, there was a concerted program of antiscience disinformation that dismissed the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic which was promoted by a White House committed to policies of “America First”. “America First” promotes negativism, anti-immigration, voter suppression, and loyalty tests to the former President that question the veracity of the 2020 Presidential election. These elements converge to form what could become modern day authoritarian regime. Historically, such regimes viewed scientists as enemies of the state.

In June 2021, Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) introduced house bill 2316. The “Fire Fauci Act” which called for halting payment of Dr. Anthony Fauci’s salary as Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and auditing his digital correspondence and financial transactions. Mud slinging Rand Paul (R-KY)  has been making unsubstantiated claims that Fauci is responsible for 5 million deaths. Public threats against Anthony Fauci have resulted in his having to hire security to keep his family safe.

Scientists who are trying to keep Americans safe are being threatened all across the county. Public-health researcher Tara Kirk Sell experienced online and e-mail attacks after talking about COVID-19 in the media. Infectious-diseases physician Krutika Kuppalli had been in her new job for barely a week in September 2020, when someone phoned her at home and threatened to kill her. Of 321 scientists asked by Nature Magazine, 15% said they had received death threats and 22% had been threatened with physical or sexual violence as a result of talking publicly about the pandemic. Two-thirds said they had had a negative experience after appearing in the media. Scientists disclosed how they had been left distressed and scared and in some cases stopped sharing their views publicly after experiencing harassment and intimidation.

In June 2021, the Republicans organized a House Select Subcommittee on the origins of COVID-19 with the presumption that it was ignited by gain-of-function genetic engineering research from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Despite evidence pointing to spillover from a viral infection in bats to additional mammals and ultimately humans as has happened in previous coronavirus epidemics.

Vaccines and vaccine scientists are also targeted. Alongside the June 2021 Republican COVID-19 origins hearings, Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) organized a round table in Milwaukee to highlight the rare adverse side effects from COVID-19 vaccines, as evening Fox News anchors promoted fake claims regarding deaths from COVID-19 vaccination. In July 2021, Rep. Greene declared on Twitter that a COVID-19 vaccine is “a political tool used to control people”, while Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) said that door-to-door COVID-19 vaccinations were just a step away from US Government confiscations of guns and bibles, and Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) referred to vaccinators as “needle Nazis”. Days later, the medical director for vaccines in the Tennessee Department of Health was abruptly terminated for her efforts to vaccinate minors (14 and up) without parental consent. At the same time states are making efforts to halt vaccine advocacy and outreach to teens and adolescents.

 

Smoking Like COVID-19

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Benjamin Mazer of The Atlantic wrote a wonderful article that had the intriguing premise that COVID-19 will not become endemic like the flu but rather more similar to the annual pandemic of death from smoking. Close to a million deaths could be prevented with a simple behavioral change.

Pandemic minimizers have long suggested that COVID-19 is no worse that the flu. However after over 900,000 dead it is hard to justify that stance unless your head is firmly entrenched in the sand.

However experts are now on board with the idea that if you are fully vaccinated and boosted your risk is on par with the flu for hospitalization and death. The flu results in about 52,000 deaths annually. That is a far better risk than about 333,ooo deaths a year from COVID-19. There is no risk less option.

A new normal will arrive when people realize that COVID deaths closely resemble smoking deaths. Both are easily avoidable. Choosing not to get vaccinated against COVID is, a modifiable health risk on par with smoking, which kills more than 400,000 people each year in the United States.

COVID vaccines have proven to be incredible effective in avoiding hospitalizations and death, An unvaccinated adult is 68 times more likely to die from COVID than a boosted one. Yet people still choose not to get protect thenselves with a simple jab. Because so few are vaccinated in America, hospitals continue to be over run. Denmark and Sweden who have done an amazing job of vaccinating their populations and have decided they are over COVID. Herd immunity is being build in the rest who survive the disease.

Smokers are 15 to 30 times more likely to develop lung cancer than non-smokers. Quitting the habit is akin to receiving a staggeringly powerful medicine, one that wipes out most of this excess risk. Yet smokers, like those who now refuse vaccines, often continue their dangerous lifestyle in the face of persistent attempts to persuade them otherwise. So for those who choose death, you can heighten the experience by shoving a butt in every one of your holes. Oh, and protest those who are trying to save your life while you are at it.

 

Omicron Invasion

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More than 66,400,000 Americans have been infected with COVID-19 since the pandemic began in early 2020. The country has seen more than 900,000 deaths and that number will likely climb to over a million. The total number of Americans who had COVID-19 could be much higher due to asymptomatic cases.

Hospitalizations have fallen in the last week by about 20% and immediately politicians want to lift all restrictions. however 98% of states in America are at high risk of transmission.

About 60,000 people are still in hospitals and there are still about 2,500 deaths a day due to COVID-19. On top of this there are still about 250,000 new cases every day. Now is not the time to let your guard down.

Things could be dropping to a base line level in the coming weeks unless a new variant emerges.

16 states so far have found COVID in their deer populations. Up to 30% of the deer tested have the virus. Some deer are being re-infected. The virus can circulate in an animal population and then re-emerge and infect humans in a new variant.  Some researchers believe that Omicron was circulating in mice and then re-emerged in its highly infectious form. Our immune systems don’t recognize the new variant and thus the virus can spread unchecked.

It has not yet been proven that a deer can infect a human but certainly humans can infect deer. An unvaccinated hunter might be the next conduit for the next wave of the pandemic. Venison when properly cooked can not spread the virus.

COVID Convoy

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COVID Omicron cases in Canada are coming down but they are still higher than any previous wave of the pandemic. Deaths peaked around January 29, 2022 but are still higher that the second and third waves of the Pandemic.Those numbers of course pale to the over 900,000 who have died in America.

Canadians are done with COVID but COVID is not done with them. The virus can not be wished away with the notion of individual freedom.

The “Freedom Convoy“, a large protest in Ottawa, Ontario, that began with truck drivers opposing a cross-border vaccine mandate continues to snarl traffic and disrupt everyday life in the Canadian capital more than a week after it began.

Ottowa is now under a state of emergency. On February 7, 2022, some drivers blocked traffic on the Ambassador Bridge, a key crossing between Windsor, Ontario, and Detroit, CBC reported. They also got the backing of more than 100 Alaska truck drivers who rallied in support of the convoy, according to the Anchorage Daily News.

Some protesters say they’re staying until all public health mandates are lifted, while others have called for the dissolution of the current government, as NPR‘s Emma Jacobs reported. In addition, signs for QAnon, right-wing militias and Confederate and Nazi flags have also appeared among the protesters, Jacobs said. Ottawa police made several arrests over the weekend, seized fuel from some protesters and issued more than 450 tickets. A judge ruled that truckers couldn’t sound their thunderous horns for 10 days.

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, who is recovering from COVID-19, has said that engaging the military in response to the protests is “not in the cards right now.”

Winter Olympic Bubble

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Can the Beijing Winter Olympics  bubble stop the highly transmissible Omicron variant? This will be the ultimate test of China’s zero-Covid strategy. China is where COVID-19 originated, yet, the Communist Party claims its handling of the virus is superior because of its authoritarian political system.

To limit the spread of infection, it is sealing the entire Games inside what authorities have called a “closed loop system” — a bubble completely cut off from the rest of the city.

The Beijing bubble is welcoming an estimated 11,000 people from around the world — and they will be shuttling through three competition zones up to 111 miles (180 kilometers) apart. The amount of security required to secure the bubble is staggering.

Daily COVID-19 infections among athletes and team officials at the Beijing Winter Olympics jumped to 19 on January 28, 2022 from two a day earlier, as Games organizers warned of more cases in coming days. Including the athletes and officials, 36 Games-related personnel were found to be infected — 29 when they arrived at the Beijing airport and seven already in the “closed loop” bubble that separates event personnel from the public, the organizing committee said in a statement on January 29, 2022.

Bail

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10,000 Americans died from COVID-19 last week. Over 860,000 Americans have died so far which is three times the number of casualties from World War II. 10000 deaths are like experiencing 3 to 4 devastating plane crashes every day, for the month, with about 90 people dying in each crash.

Despite this 25% of Americans refuse to get a life saving vaccine. Some journalist on the Bill Mayer show pronounced that she is done with COVID. She used to spray the Pringles cans, (who actually eats Pringles?) She stripped her clothes off fearing COVID might be on her clothes. She thought that when she got the vaccine life would return to normal. Now, she is over it.

She is of the new group of Americans that fit into the “Vaxed and Done” camp.” She is inconvenienced and only thinks of herself.  She really isn’t thinking about the true sacrifices of doctors and nurses all across America who are burnt out from having to watch so many people needlessly die.

Media like to point out that Omicron is less deadly than Delta. In the case of the original strain of COVID, if there are 10,ooo infections, and each patient then infects 1.1 other people, and of those 0.8% might result in death, in one months time you might expect 129 deaths. If the virus is more deadly like Delta then the number of deaths might rise to 193 in a month. If the virus is 50% more contagious like Omicron then in that case there would be 978 deaths.

The virus is controllable with simple masking, distancing and vaccines. However many Americans consider this an inconvenience. America has proven incapable of rationally responding as a society. 1 out of every 375 Americans has died from COVID and they continue to do so. a mask is 25 cents and the vaccine is free, yet that is a bride too far. Another 50,000 to 300,000 Americans will die from COVID by March 2023.

Doctors and nurses are trying to bail out the life boat while others not only refuse to bail but are actively trying to sink the boat.

William Cranshaw wrote in 1625, “Abhor more that poison wicked opinions that the pestilence us not infectious, that each can do whatever he wants, that avoiding persons and places, and diligent use of means for preservation, are needless and of no use…”

Military Cases Triple

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COVID-19 cases in the United States have surged almost three-fold in the military since just before Christmas of 2021 according to defense department statistics. The Defense Department reported just under 5,300 cases among service members December 22, 2021. By January 5, 2022 that number reached more than 13,900.

As of September 1, 2021 there were 40 military member deaths due to COVID-19. By January 5, 2022 the total was 86. In response, the military is increasing health protection protocols on many bases and at the pentagon.

Wright Patterson Air Force Base has moved to the highest level of health protection measures which includes now allowing only 15% of the workforce in the office at a time.

One base that has seen a post holiday surge is Fort Bragg, North Carolina, which currently has an estimated 50% positivity rate among those being tested. The base hospital, Womack Army Medical Center, was at 100% capacity at the end of last week, a military official there told CNN.

The jump reflects, to some extent, what is happening in civilian society as the Omicron variant has taken hold and case rates have risen in many communities across the country, defense officials say. The Defense Department does not test specifically for the Omicron variant but officials say there is every reason to believe the highly contagious variant has hit the military force.

Tower of Babel

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On the evening of December 10, 2021, a huge series tornados ravaged central and southern states. The death toll has risen over 80. A stretch of more than 250 miles from Arkansas to Kentucky might have been hit by one violent, long-track twister, CNN meteorologists said.

In Kentucky alone more than 70 have been reported dead. The tornado hit the Mayfield Consumer Products Candle Factory which had 110 people working inside when the roof caved in. Workers were working through the night to meet Christmas demand. Workers who heard warning sirens wanted to get home to shelter in place, but they were told they would likely be fired if they left. Some left despite the threat of loosing their jobs. Dozens are feared dead.

In Edwardsville Illinois, an Amazon warehouse was blown open killing 6. Walls on both sides of the warehouse collapsed inward, while the roof collapsed downward. Workers in the warehouse were banned from having cell phones which could be a life saving device if a worker were conscious and trapped under rubble. In such an emergency it wold be good to be able to get in touch with loved ones to see if they are safe. “After these deaths, there is no way in hell I am relying on Amazon to keep me safe,” an Amazon worker from a nearby facility in Illinois told Bloomberg. “If they institute the no cell phone policy, I am resigning.”

On December 10, 2021 the same day as the tornado, 2,064 people died from COVID-19 in America. That is like having 25 of these tornados killing people across the country every day.