Against the Wind

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Is a slower outdoor wind speed is associated with an increased risk of transmission when individuals socialize outside? A study done between March 16th and December 31st, 2020 took a look at wind speed and maximal daily temperature to see if they might affect the infection rates of COVID-19.

Cases were very high in the initial wave but diminished once lockdown procedures were enacted. Analyses revealed that days with temperatures ranging between 60° and 82°F where wind speed was < 5.4 miles per hour (MPH) had an increased COVID-19 chance of infection.

The risk of transmission of COVID-19 in the summer was higher on days with low wind speed. Outdoor use of increased physical distance between individuals, improved air circulation, and use of masks may be helpful in outdoor environments where airflow is limited.

Most known respiratory viruses spread during the cold season in the temperate Northern hemisphere. As temperatures drop the chance of infection from COVID-19 may increase outdoors but good airflow will reduce the chance of infection.

COVID-19 transmits via aerosolized viral particles that begin shedding before symptoms are evident. As a result, approximately half of those diagnosed with COVID-19 report not knowing where they may have become infected. This lack of knowledge may be because COVID-19 transmits in outdoor spaces that are believed to be safe. COVID-19 can transmit through the air over relatively long distances. The new Omicon variant has been found to linger in the air longer making it far more transmissible that the previous variants.

The bottom line is to keep wearing masks where air can stagnate, particularly indoors,  social distance and wash hands often. If you are near others outside and there is no wind it would also be advisable to wear a mask. Omicron is a game changer being so highly transmissible. It is advisable that you consider anyone you meet in the next few weeks to be potentially infected.  We will all be exposed to Omicron in the next month or so.

COVID Caught a Cold

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A gene sequence from the common cold virus has worked its way into the Omicron variant of COVID-19. This gene sequence was not in any of the previous mutations of the virus (Alpha, Beta, Delta).

This happened through a process known as switching. The COVID virus invaded a cell and at the same time a common cold virus invaded the same cell. The genes of the two viruses then get mixed up together. This new combination makes the virus more competitive and virulent.

The virus became far more transmissible but perhaps less pathogenic. Patients in South Africa are nor requiring as much oxygen as was needed for patients suffering from Delta.

Omicron is evading vaccines and people who have been infected in the past are being re-infected. Pfizer-BioNTech,  has announced that three doses of vaccine are needed to combat Omicron. Research has shown that a third vaccine shot increases antibodies by 25%. They did not say how long those antibodies last. The company is rushing to develop an Omicron specific version of the vaccine which should be available by March 2022.

Omicron is the most transmissible of all the variants of COVID-19 to date. It is 4 times more transmissible than Delta. It has now been detected in 57 countries. Those numbers change by the hour. It will dominate the world stage in several weeks time. We will all be exposed to this variant. Symptoms include, Body aches and pains, muscle pain, headache, tiredness (1 to 2 days), and a slight sore throat. People are not getting a severe cough, or runny nose. These symptoms are consistent with my everyday existence for the past 20 months. A loss of smell or taste is no longer a symptom with Omicron. The fact is that many people will not realize that they have COVID-19 with these symptoms. Most will not go to hospitals and will recover at home. It is important to note however that there has been an slight increase in hospitalizations in South Africa, but it has not been a huge spike consistent with the amazing exponential growth in infections.

Though Omicron looms in the near future, the fact is that Delta is causing a huge spike in hospitalizations and death in states like Michigan and Minnesota. Despite these rising cases and deaths, most Americans are done with the pandemic and have returned to pre-pandemic life styles. Thanksgiving travel rivaled pre-pandemic travel and cases that resulted from all that mingling are just now reaching their peak. People have let their guard down and the virus will take full advantage of that weakness.

Children are the new victims of the virus. 132,000 children have been reported with infections in the last week across the country. Children will be infected by the Omicron variant at an increased rate. Children need to be vaccinated and even boosted if they are eligible. In South Africa 80% of the patients admitted to hospitals and diagnosed with COVID were under the age of 50. This is a younger age profile than existed with the Delta surge.

COVID Fight or Flight

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We have chosen flight over fight. Nations can choose to fight the war on COVID-19 by working together to vaccinate everyone in every nation or they can choose to cancel flights to nations that report new mutations.

As the virus spreads it will continue to mutate thus threatening every nation. Only 55% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Only 6% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose. That leaves plenty of unvaccinated people for the virus to infect and kill.

Nations that feel they are safe because they are offering booster jabs are misguided. The virus is evolving faster that the global distribution of vaccines. The World Health Organization set a target for all countries to vaccinate 10% of their populations by the end of September 2021. 56 countries effectively excluded from the global vaccine marketplace were not able to reach this target, most of them in Africa. It is not rocket science therefor to guess that new mutations would crop up in Africa.

Most manufacturers have largely spurned the opportunities to share technology and know-how and public health-oriented licensing. The global failure to share vaccines equitably is taking its toll on some of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people. New variants of concern mean that the risks of infection have increased in all countries for people who are not yet protected by vaccination.

When a hot spot emerges they should be bombed with huge supplies of vaccines, but instead borders are shut down and trade stops.

Anime Superspreader

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A fully vaccinated and boosted man from Minnesota and 30 friends flew to New York City to attend an Anime Convention at the . After attending the the man tested positive for the Omicron variant of COVID-19. 15 of the others in his party also tested positive for COVID-19. It is uncertain whether any of those cases involved the Omicron variant.

The Minnesota man has recovered from mild symptoms that began shortly after the convention ended. His friends are from other states and their conditions are not yet known.

Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont reported on December 4, 2021 his state’s first case, a man in his 60s, seemed to originate from a relative of an infected man who had recently attended the anime convention. Additional family members were being tested, and both the man and his relative were fully vaccinated and experiencing only mild symptoms.

The anime convention, which drew 53 thousand people to the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center for three days, was likely a vector for spreading the new variant. Many attendees wore masks but some of the rooms were incredibly crowded with people crowded together shoulder to shoulder.

Convention attendees were required to provide proof that they had received at least one vaccine shot and they had to wear masks, according to convention web site. A single shot of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine is at most 80% effective at preventing infection. That efficacy drops with the new Omicron variant. The bottom line is that it was irresponsible to hold such a crowded convention in a pandemic.

America’s COVID-19  testing and contact-tracing efforts, have been a complete failure since the start of the pandemic so the full extent of the spread from this single convention will never be fully known. After Minnesota officials learned that the convention attendee had the Omicron variant, they informed the New York City Health Department. City health officials said that they had begun sending text messages and emails to the thousands of the anime convention’s attendees, urging them to get tested. Dr. Ted Long, who oversees the city’s contact tracing program, said that he was aware of five positive cases so far among New York City residents who attended the anime convention. The CDC is assisting the Minnesota and New York City health departments in tracking any cases, a spokeswoman said.

It is easy the Anime Convention organizers to pass the blame. Perhaps the Minnesota man and his friends were infected at a restaurant, at the hotel or on the flight. Besides these people chose to attend this superspreader event. It is their own damn fault, oh, and thanks for attending.

Memory of a Goldfish

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Americans have the memory of a goldfish. We will all be exposed to Omicron by Christmas. It is doubling every day and a half which is faster that any of the previous waves. Because of America and the world’s failed response to the virus, herd Immunity is off the table.

It is like we have returned to the first weeks of the pandemic. Superspreader events crop up faster than I can document them. A Norwegian cruise ship is again acting as a petri dish for spreading disease.

When death numbers fall a bit, Americans are in a mad rush to return to “life as normal.” They rush to crushing crowds at concerts and celebrate holidays with as many people as they can in enclosed spaces. Mindless selfishness is the norm. The virus has come to its senses and realized that it makes no sense to kill off it’s human host so quickly. It is best to keep the human host alive to incubate new and more exotic variants.

Do not panic. Early cases of Omicron though spreading faster, are presenting as less severe that previous waves. The numbers of hospitalizations and people needing oxygen are not rising exponentially in South Africa. However with so many people becoming infected around the world all at once, even a small percentage of deadly infections could be a horrifyingly high number. The good news is that this tsunami of infections, if not severe, could infect and thus give anti bodies to those that have refused to get vaccinated. The previously infected will be re-infected. This could create some semblance of normalcy as we learn to live with the virus, but future mutations could be more deadly.

Norway Omicron Superspreader

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A company Christmas party is Oslo Norway became the sire of an Omicron superspreader event. Up to 60 people may have been infected at the company party held at Louise Restaurant & Bar at Aker Brygge. 13 of the infections so far have been confirmed to be the Omicron variant.

The Nov. 26, 2021 outbreak took place at a Christmas party organized by renewable energy company Scatec, which has operations in South Africa where the variant was first detected.

At least one employee had just returned from South Africa. All the attendees were fully vaccinated and had tested negative before the event.

Preben Aavitsland, a senior physician at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, told Reuters by email, “Our working hypothesis is that at least half of the 120 participants were infected with the Omicron variant during the party. This makes this, for now, the largest Omicron outbreak outside South Africa.”

Health authorities said the individuals infected were so far displaying mild symptoms, with none hospitalized.”It is still too early to say whether the clinical picture of the disease is different in Omicron infections than in Delta infections,” Aavitsland said.

The outbreak led the Norwegian government to reintroduce some nationwide restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19. Across Europe, companies are cancelling Christmas party plans due to the emergence of the Omicron variant. Daily new cases are exponentially spiking in Norway.

A Christmas Carol: Poster Evolution

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Each poster I illustrated for the Orlando Shakes this season went through an evolution from initial concept sketches to final tweaks and refinements.

My initial concepts simply used sketches I had done at past performances. There is a big difference between a loose spontaneous sketch done in a dark theater and a final illustration, but it was a way to start getting ideas out.


I then went on to an illustration of the ghost of Christmas past in front of the raging fireplace. My thought was that we could all use some semblance of joy after more than 20 months of living with a pandemic.

Ultimately however I settled on Scrooge’s conversion on Christmas day as he holds up Tiny Tim. That visually expressed the joy I wanted without the visage of ghosts. It also helped to put a large chorus in the scene. There were other refinements to the poster involving refining chorus members, but I will not get into that minutia.

A Christmas Carol runs through December 24, 2021. The show features your favorite carols and awe-inspiring special effects, this delightful rendition tells the iconic tale of one man’s chance to change for the better. Gather together to witness the holiday magic and create a tradition for the whole family.

Omicron Beats Delta

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Experts believe that the Omicron Variant of COVID-19 will be more transmissible that Delta. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that 38 countries across the world have reported cases of the highly mutated omicron Covid-19 variant so far.

The virus spike proteins have  32 mutations which make it easier for the virus to spread and infect humans. For comparison, Delta had 9 mutations. The Omicron variant might also evade COVID-19 vaccines, but it could take some time to see if that’s true or not. The Omicron variant may also cause more re-infections.

More children are being admitted into hospitals with COVID infections in South Africa where the variant was first reported. Last month in South Africa, 74% of genomes sequenced were Omicron. Within two weeks, Omicron has replaced Delta in South Africa. 56 countries have imposed travel bans but the virus has already spread world wide. Thousands of people have flown into the United States from South Africa and other infected countries since the variant was first reported and when the flight restrictions finally began. Omicron can reinfect people who have had COVID-19. Since it can reinfect people the pool of potential hosts makes for exponential growth in infections. Omicron will become the main variant in the world.

At the moment, the only data scientists have to estimate omicron’s transmissibility comes largely from the cluster of cases at a university in Pretoria, South Africa. The rapid rise in cases there could be due, in part, to a superspreading event.With only 4% of the population vaccinated, thousands of people took to the streets to protest in a “Superspreader March.” It was a “March to Save Lives” but may have instead been the perfect way to spread the new variant.

Cases of Omicron in America have been reported in 5 states so far but it is likely fare more wide spread. The only reason we don’t know more, is that the United States has a very poor record of genomic analysis compared to other countries. The first case discovered in America had been fully vaccinated but had not gotten a booster yet.

Basic health measure that have been promoted since the start off the pandemic still work. Wear a good quality mask, social distance and wash your hands often.

The good news is the early cases have been mild so far. However cases usually get worse in the second and third week of infection, so we will see how deadly the virus  mutation is soon. If it turns out that it produces only mild cases that do not require hospitalization, then that could be very good news. Time will tell.

Phantasmagoria’s A Christmas Carol, A Ghost Story of Christmas

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I went to sketch a rehearsal for Phantasmagoria’s A Christmas Carol, A Ghost Story of Christmas at the Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts. Masked, I sat alone in the audience . Many of the cast wore their masks before the full run through of the show.

From the cast: “To protect the health and safety of our audience, cast and crew—especially going into this holiday season—the Phantasmagoria troupe prefers that you wear a mask while in attendance for Christmas Carol. Thank you and the very best of the season to you!”

The Dr. Phillips Performing Arts Center no longer requires masks, So I am left wondering how many of the patrons will respect the wishes of the artists.

We are definitely living in dark times with a new, more transmissible variant of the virus invading the world, but the heart in this time honored tale can still melt even the hardest heart. I found myself getting choked up as scrooge chose kindness over profits and was accepted by family. The joy of celebrating the holidays being recreated on the stage had me wiping away tears as I felt a warm glow of hope for the future. For another year Pam and I have chosen not to travel to visit family to avoid spreading the virus. Some family are unvaccinated and have no intention of protecting themselves and others. Perhaps this is why the warmth of the message stung so hard.

There is one more performance on December 4, 2021 at 8 PM at the Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts (445 S. Magnolia Avenue Orlando, FL 32801). Tickers start at $30. Feel the horror and warmth of this holiday season. Should you miss tonight’s performance, you can also catch them next weekend in Sanford, and the 22 and 23 at Athens Theater in Deland Florida.

Why are 30% of healthcare workers in America unvaccinated?

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Why are 30% of healthcare workers in America unvaccinated? Since they are on the front lines you would think they have seen enough people gasping their last breaths  and might prefer not to die the same way.

Among healthcare workers, those with the most years of higher education are more likely to be vaccinated. A study from Carnegie Mellon University found that 9 percent of physicians said they were hesitant to be vaccinated, while 20 to 23 percent of nursing aides and emergency medical technicians said they were.

In Alabama, which a 46% vaccination rate statewide, around 50 percent of hospital workers are currently unvaccinated. Hospitals nationwide are responding in recent weeks and months by implementing vaccine mandates for their workers. These mandates are resulting in protests from the stupid.

An anti-Vaccine summit was held in Ocala Florida. Seven doctors who attended that conference tested positive for COVID-19 within days of attending. One of those infected, Bruce Boros, is a 71-year-old cardiologist who advocated for the use of Ivermectin as an effective treatment against COVID-19 during the event. “I have been on Ivermectin for 16 months, my wife and I,” Boros said at the event, according to The Daily Beast. “I have never felt healthier in my life.” He fell ill with COVID-19 two days later.

Houston Methodist Hospital fired a doctor for spreading misinformation about COVID-19. The doctor insisted that vaccine mandates are wrong and shifted her practice to focus on treating unvaccinated patients. She has also used her personal Twitter account to promote the anti-parasitic drug Ivermectin as a treatment for the COVID-19, despite warnings from public health officials advising people not to take it.

Av Med Health in Florida reversed its decision to have vaccine mandates for it’s healthcare workers after Florida Governor Ron DeathSantis signed a bill making vaccine mandates illegal. He wants to give healthcare workers the “freedom” to infect their patients. He also wants to give moms the “freedom” to have their children infect other children.