Deflagration

Posted on by Thor

Many are letting their guard down now that Donald Trump wants to open up the economy leaving governors the challenge of figuring out how to do that safely. Yet the virus is not slowing down. The number of people dying every day is in the thousands. Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House’s coronavirus task force, warned senators Tuesday May 12, 2020  that states and cities face serious consequences if they open up too quickly, urging states not to reopen until they know they have the capabilities to handle an inevitable uptick in cases once they relax stay-at-home orders.

I am going to share some musings of Dr. Erin Bromage and link to his article should you want to read more. He is a PhD in Microbiology and makes no claims at being an expert in Covid-19, medicine, or preparedness. Though we may soon be reaching the peak of the curve of death that I check every night before I go to sleep, the downward slope of that curve is predicted to be gradual with deaths persisting for months. Assuming that states stayed in lock down, we would lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. As states reopen fuel is added to the virus for it to spread.

In many cases people become infected in the home. One person leaves the home and then returns and the sustained contact with family spreads the infection. Some experts estimate that as few as 1000 SARS-CoV2 infectious viral particles needed to cause an infection.

Sine many will be returning to work the goal is to try to guide you away from situations of high risk. Grocery stores, bike rides, and inconsiderate runners who are not wearing masks are not necessarily areas of primary concern. The reason is that if there are viral particles, you are exposed for a brief period of time. A grocery store worker however could have sustained exposure over time.

Bathrooms are high risk exposure areas with a lot of high touch surfaces, door handles, faucets, stall doors. Of course a cough is high risk. A single cough releases about 3,000 droplets and droplets travels at 50 miles per hour. A single sneeze releases about 30,000 droplets, with droplets traveling at up to 200 miles per hour. Most droplets are small and travel great distances (easily across a room).
A single breath releases 50 – 5000 droplets. Though research has not been done a breath might release about 33 viral particles.
 
To become infected you need to be exposed to the virus over time. Some of the biggest outbreaks of the virus have been at meat packing plants, weddings, funerals, and business networking. A study of an asymptomatic person seated with 9 friends in a restaurant showed that 50% of the people at the table became infected along with 75% of the people at a downwind table. A single air conditioning unit recirculated the air in the room. Even 2 people upwind of the asymptomatic person became infected.
 
A case study of a workplace, had one infected employee come into a crowded call center with 216 employees. Over the period of a week, 94 of those people became infected. Primarily the people on one side off the office became infected while only a few were infected on the other side off the office. Working in an enclosed space, sharing the same air for a prolonged period increases your chances of exposure and infection.
A choir rehearsal in Washington state had 60 people in attendance. Members avoided handshakes and hugs and had their own sheet music. A single asymptomatic carrier infected most of the people in attendance. They sang for 2 1/2 hours, inside an enclosed rehearsal hall which was roughly the size of a volleyball court. Singing aerosolizes respiratory droplets extraordinarily well. I have been watching National Theater productions broadcast for free during the pandemic and the close ups on actors singing shows this spray of particles particularly well in the stage spotlighting. Over a period of 4 days, 45 of the 60 choir members developed symptoms, 2 died.
All these infection events were indoors, with people closely-spaced, with lots of talking, singing, or yelling. The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. Of the countries performing contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment. That means the painting I just posted is more fantasy than fact, but hey, its art. I’m just trying to wake up the complacent.
Know the risks, wash your hands, wear a mask to protect yourself and others and stay safe out there.

It Takes One

Posted on by Thor
Covid-19 has made the world a smaller place. If a butterfly flaps its wings in China it could have global effects. Three months ago we were concerned about the threat of the virus spreading from China. While we had our eye on that threat, three million passengers traveled to New York City airports from Europe before the travel ban. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said, “We had people in the airports stopping people from China, testing people from China, the federal government did a lot of testing, a lot of screening, people getting off planes, from China,but meanwhile the people from Europe were walking right past them,.” Trump eventually banned travelers from Europe on March 16, 2020 but the measure was too late, citing how 3 million Europeans came through New York’s airports from December to March.
Anyone can mingle in a crowd or get in a plane and bring the virus to any state or any county in the world.  Since the world is so interconnected, a threat of the virus anywhere is a threat everywhere. A second wave of the virus has just broken out in Wuhan China where it began. Back on April 7, 2020 Wuhan had re-opened after being locked down for 76 days. The outbreak appeared to be largely under control, with no new cases or deaths reported. However the new strain of the virus is more virulent than ever. The city is mobilizing to conduct 10 million tests for all  its citizens in the next 10 days to help control the outbreak.
Meanwhile here in American you essentially need to be on your deathbed before you can get tested. White house  staff on the other hand get tested daily and anyone who gets close to the POTUS is tested. The consequences for states and communities that don’t follow reopening guidelines “could be really serious,” Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee on Tuesday.
Florida will reopened certain businesses through much of the state on May 4, 2020 except in the counties of Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, according to Governor Ron DeSantis. The governor was concerned that flights from New York City could spread the virus in the Sunshine State. Starting May 4, restaurants may offer outdoor seating with six-foot space between tables and indoor seating at 25% capacity. Retail can operate at 25% of indoor capacity, and bars, gyms and personal services such as hairdressers will remain closed. Churches remain on “voluntary social distancing,” and movie theaters remain closed. The state’s stay-at-home order ended on April 30, 2020. Orange County Florida lifted it night time curfew.DeSantis defended the decision made by local leaders to reopen the beaches as he awaits recommendations from Reopen Task Force. The reopening of the beaches in Jacksonville Beach, Florida, generated criticism and also generated the Twitter hashtag #FloridaMorons. Naples  beach re-opened but then had to immediately be shut down because of overcrowding. One official noted that cars parked by the beach had many love bugs splattered on their bumpers meaning that people were not local but had driven from far away, perhaps Miami. The speed limit near the beach is 10 miles per hour. Councilman Gary Price said. “It was packed. People were parking everywhere, blocks away.” The councilman said he took photos to show the crowds, mostly packed close together and not social distancing as required. Naples plans to re-open the beach with new restrictions after the abrupt closure. The Florida Keys will not reopen to visitors until at least June.

The City of Winter Park blocked off Park Avenue to car traffic while offering outdoor seating for Mothers day, May 10, 2020. It was marketed as a “weekend opportunity.” Twenty two of more than 400 eligible businesses within city limits offered seating and merchandise indoors and on sidewalks and the street. A reader sent me photos of people not social distancing. Although visitors are merely encouraged to bring and wear masks, workers were required to wear masks when within six feet of anyone. No one in the photos I was shown wore face masks. I did not paint this event but instead the Sidewalk At Festival that happened pre-pandemic.

Covid-19 has shut down the U.S. for two months, but the pandemic is just getting started, says Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Osterholm said only an effective vaccine can slow the virus before a large enough segment of the population becomes infected and develops some level of immunity. A CDC covid-19 Chicago case study showed that 1 person spread the virus to 15 other people in February, 2020 Three of those infected died. 

As of yesterday May 12, 2020, 1,385,834 people in America have been infected by Covid-19 with 81,795 dead. One single spark can create a flash fire that spreads fast.

11 Secret Service Infected

Posted on by Thor

Anger raged through the White House when President Donald Trump found out that Cdvid-19 had seeded itself among his staff. He was “lava level mad.” Trump has complained to advisers that the numbers of deaths reported is too high. Apparently he will begin to blame hospitals for the high numbers. Despite his wanting to spin the numbers to benefit himself politically, the virus is hitting closer to home.

Trump relies on the Secret Service to keep him safe when he goes to rally’s and any public function. The Secret Service with 7,600 employees, provides personal protection for the president, vice president and their families, along with visiting heads of state. Now 11 Secret Service officers have tested positive for Covid-19.  60 Secret Service are now in self quarantine. It is as if they are taking the viral bullet for the POTUS. The assignment locations of the sick Secret Service agents were not identified.  For his own part, the POTUS refuses to wear a mask.

Katie Miller Vice President Mike Pence‘s press secretary has tested positive for the virus. She was seen an a photo speaking to reporters not wearing a mask. Mike Pence is maintaining distance from the president. If only we all could do that. White House staff work close together making social distancing impossible. Also when the president announced that the CDC was recommends that people wear face masks, he pointed out that it was voluntary and he would not be wearing a mask. His primary concern is opening up the country and getting the middle class and working class back to work. Being photographed wearing a mask he feels would send the wrong message as he sends people into the work force to face possible infection. He considers Americans expendable warriors in the fight to open up  the economy.

Besides Katie Miller, Trumps valet and Ivanka Trump‘s personal assistant contracted the virus. The valet personally has served the president his diet cokes. White house staff is now tested DAILY and any person who gets close to the president is always tested. Katie had been testing negative and then she tested positive. Trump seemed to think this implied that testing is useless but it takes time for a person to become infected. The virus builds up over time inside a person before it can be detected. The virus is easily spread when the person is still asymptomatic.

Dr. Anthony Fauci will begin a modified quarantine since he came in contact with Katie Miller. Dr. Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration and Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However the Vice President whom she serves will not be quarantining himself. Most white house staff are now being asked to wear masks. The POTUS and VP do not.

As the Trump administration urges Americans to return to workplaces and Donald Trump touts a “transition to greatness” (read transition to the after life), the White House is struggling to project business as usual even as Covid-19 cases spread through the halls.

At an outdoor press conference, Trump was asked why the White House staff is able to be tested daily when that is still not available for the American people. He balked at the at how the question was asked, and told the reporter that it’s a catch-22 and the White House would face criticism if senior officials weren’t frequently tested. “You know what, if we didn’t get the test, you’d be up complaining why aren’t you getting tests for the White House?” Trump said. “We can’t win.” Trump followed with, “It is shocking, given the number of people who come in and out of the White House every day, how few positive cases there have been. He added: “I’ve felt no vulnerability whatsoever.”

New York City has stopped the virus in it’s tracks, though several hundred still die every day, by isolating the population. NYC plans to re-open carefully while watching the data. If a recurrence in infections happens the valve will be dialed back.

Trumps rush to open up the rest of the county will result in needless deaths. Many states have not even begun to follow CDC guidelines for a safe recovery. He takes no responsibility leaving all the difficult choices to governors. He is ignoring the science to try and save his political career. What he should be trying to save is the American people. At least 43 states are now partially re-opened while the death toll rises. The CDC issued a comprehensive plan for states to re-open safely but the white house shelved that plan.

When asked by CBS reporter Weijia Jiang “Why he sees Coronavirus testing as a global competition, when more than 80,000 Americans are dead, he had a meltdown saying, “Ask China.” This came across an incredible racist since the reporter came to America when she was two years old from China. He abruptly ended the news conference rather than answer the question. The man is clearly unstable and unhinged. This is our “leader” turning his back on Americans in a time of crisis.

As of yesterday, 80,787 have died in America. The number of daily deaths is NOT slowing. We might be at or near the apex of the mountain but the downward slope will result in as many deaths and the hard climb up. By not social distancing the virus will have new fuel to spread.