Omicron Blitz

Posted on by Thor

Omicron is “the most significant threat” to public health in the U.K., authorities warned on December 15, 2021, as the WHO cautioned that the highly contagious Covid-19 variant was spreading at an unprecedented rate.

The number of Covid-19 infections over the coming days will be “quite staggering” compared to previous variants, said Jenny Harries, the head of the U.K. Health Security Agency.

England has entered a wartime stance against the advancing Omicron variant.  The country reported a record number (78,610) of new daily Covid-19 cases on December 15, 2021. This surpassed the previous high of 68,053 cases reported on January 8, 2021.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned that Britain faces a “tidal wave” of omicron infections, and has announced that England would be speeding up its booster program to offer all adults a third dose of a vaccine by the end of the year.

Long lines have been seen outside vaccination centers in many U.K. cities and towns with the government putting its booster program on overdrive to try to get a third vaccine shot to as many people as possible.

Johnson confirmed on December 13, 2021 that at least one patient infected with the new omicron variant had died in the country. It was the first publicly confirmed death globally from the new heavily mutated strain. Some restrictions, including mask mandates in shops and instructions to work from home where possible, have been reintroduced in England throughout December 2021. France imposed a travel ban on U.K. travelers. The United States will be following the U.K. in two to three weeks. Omicron is already prevalent in Orange County waste water meaning it is spreading Central Florida.

Professor Shabir Madhi, a leading vaccinologist, said that Omicron is NOT less virulent than Delta but deaths have been 10 times less in South Africa. This may be because so many people (73%) had prior infections resulting in some immunity. Discovery Health of South Africa reported on a study of 3.7 million people from the first thee weeks of the Omicron outbreak. Omicron now accounts for 90% of the cases having displaced Delta. Omicron has peaked faster than any other variant of COVID-19.

Two doses of Pfizer Bio-NTech now only offer 33% protection against infection. Cases however are mild when infection occurs. The two doses of Pfizer offer 70% protection against hospitalization. Booster doses should bring immunity levels back up  to 90%. For someone with a prior infection of COVID there is a 40% risk of re-infection.If you are unvaccinated, then you are screwed. The virus will find you.

In South Africa the chance of hospitalization with Omicron is 29% lower than Delta. There is less of chance of intensive care admission. Children under the age of 18 have a 20% higher risk of admission. There is also an increase of admissions for children under the age of 5. Most children presented with mild symptoms such as sore throat, nasal congestion, headache, and a fever that resolved in two or three days.

Tower of Babel

Posted on by Thor

On the evening of December 10, 2021, a huge series tornados ravaged central and southern states. The death toll has risen over 80. A stretch of more than 250 miles from Arkansas to Kentucky might have been hit by one violent, long-track twister, CNN meteorologists said.

In Kentucky alone more than 70 have been reported dead. The tornado hit the Mayfield Consumer Products Candle Factory which had 110 people working inside when the roof caved in. Workers were working through the night to meet Christmas demand. Workers who heard warning sirens wanted to get home to shelter in place, but they were told they would likely be fired if they left. Some left despite the threat of loosing their jobs. Dozens are feared dead.

In Edwardsville Illinois, an Amazon warehouse was blown open killing 6. Walls on both sides of the warehouse collapsed inward, while the roof collapsed downward. Workers in the warehouse were banned from having cell phones which could be a life saving device if a worker were conscious and trapped under rubble. In such an emergency it wold be good to be able to get in touch with loved ones to see if they are safe. “After these deaths, there is no way in hell I am relying on Amazon to keep me safe,” an Amazon worker from a nearby facility in Illinois told Bloomberg. “If they institute the no cell phone policy, I am resigning.”

On December 10, 2021 the same day as the tornado, 2,064 people died from COVID-19 in America. That is like having 25 of these tornados killing people across the country every day.

Tropical Tree Crealde

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On Sundays I teach Urban Sketching at Crealde School of Art. We spend most of our time outside sketching on the campus. This is the safest option to teach the class.

I did this sketch of Tropical Tree by John Walfe to demonstrate negative shapes in a sketch. Though the sculpture it the focus of the sketch, the pick up actually takes up more space o the page.

Rather than focusing on the trunk like yellow and green shapes I instead focused on the triangular shapes between the trunks. The same applied to the tree trunk in the background.

I also rushed this sketch to show that the paint does not have to be delicately applied to the sketch. I literally spattered paint and threw it at the page to create blunt rough textures.

I am always stressing perspective and making sure the viewer knows where the ground plane is. The cement base of the sculpture is the one hint about the ground plane while most other object are viewed rather straight on creating a flat image.

Mother Nature’s Solution

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Humanity has botched it’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic from the start. It seems humanity has little to no ability to think in terms of self preservation. A large section of society is actively avoiding a life saving vaccine.

Mother Nature may be stepping in to save the unvaccinated from themselves. Professor Eleanore Riley, a professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Edinburgh University said that the Omicron variant could act as a natural vaccine for the unvaccinated.

Since Omicron is 4 times more transmissible than the Delta variant, we will all be exposed in the next couple of weeks. The hope is that many will be asymptomatic, with mild symptoms, but it is too early to be certain.

The first case of Omicron was reported in England on November 27, 2021. 16 days later it now accounts for over 50% of all cases in the country. December 13, 2021 England reported the first death from Omicron.

Those who were previously infected will be re-infected, those with just 2 jabs of vaccine may be infected since the variant can evade the vaccine immune response, and of course the virus will find and burn through the unvaccinated. The United States will soon follow in this amazing tsunami of infections.

The good news is that being infected with Omicron will result in an immune response for a period of time. Having milder symptoms means that people will circulate and therefor further spread the virus. Each person infects 4 others and those people infect 4 others, that is what results in such an exponential spread of disease. It is still advisable to wear masks, social distance and wash hands often as this waves swamps the country. The virus will continue to evolve.

 

Crealde Thumbnails

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On Sundays I teach an Urban Sketching class at Crealde School of Art. We work outside on the campus to stay safe from the virus. Masks are required in the     classroom but they are voluntary outside. I just insist that students put on their mask if they get within six feet of another student or myself.

This class was about doing a series of small sketches that explore the campus. The goal was to get 9, 4 or in my case 3 sketches on the page. I encouraged the students to thing in terms of a cinematic panorama.

As always I stressed the importance of using perspective to make it clear how each thing in the sketch is planted on the ground plane. Shadows under any object also help plant it in the scene.

I have a super talented student this semester and I am just encouraging her to keep the sketches in her sketchbook oriented in a similar way so that anyone who pucks up the sketchbook and flips through will not need to turn the sketchbook upside down or sideways to experience the next page or spread.

All week I work in the studio doing horrific images each day that document the pandemic and peoples ignorance, so it is nice to take one day a week to feel the sun on my face and simply put pastoral scenes on the page. Gustave Klimt put it perfectly, “Art is a line around your thoughts.”

Against the Wind

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Is a slower outdoor wind speed is associated with an increased risk of transmission when individuals socialize outside? A study done between March 16th and December 31st, 2020 took a look at wind speed and maximal daily temperature to see if they might affect the infection rates of COVID-19.

Cases were very high in the initial wave but diminished once lockdown procedures were enacted. Analyses revealed that days with temperatures ranging between 60° and 82°F where wind speed was < 5.4 miles per hour (MPH) had an increased COVID-19 chance of infection.

The risk of transmission of COVID-19 in the summer was higher on days with low wind speed. Outdoor use of increased physical distance between individuals, improved air circulation, and use of masks may be helpful in outdoor environments where airflow is limited.

Most known respiratory viruses spread during the cold season in the temperate Northern hemisphere. As temperatures drop the chance of infection from COVID-19 may increase outdoors but good airflow will reduce the chance of infection.

COVID-19 transmits via aerosolized viral particles that begin shedding before symptoms are evident. As a result, approximately half of those diagnosed with COVID-19 report not knowing where they may have become infected. This lack of knowledge may be because COVID-19 transmits in outdoor spaces that are believed to be safe. COVID-19 can transmit through the air over relatively long distances. The new Omicon variant has been found to linger in the air longer making it far more transmissible that the previous variants.

The bottom line is to keep wearing masks where air can stagnate, particularly indoors,  social distance and wash hands often. If you are near others outside and there is no wind it would also be advisable to wear a mask. Omicron is a game changer being so highly transmissible. It is advisable that you consider anyone you meet in the next few weeks to be potentially infected.  We will all be exposed to Omicron in the next month or so.

COVID Caught a Cold

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A gene sequence from the common cold virus has worked its way into the Omicron variant of COVID-19. This gene sequence was not in any of the previous mutations of the virus (Alpha, Beta, Delta).

This happened through a process known as switching. The COVID virus invaded a cell and at the same time a common cold virus invaded the same cell. The genes of the two viruses then get mixed up together. This new combination makes the virus more competitive and virulent.

The virus became far more transmissible but perhaps less pathogenic. Patients in South Africa are nor requiring as much oxygen as was needed for patients suffering from Delta.

Omicron is evading vaccines and people who have been infected in the past are being re-infected. Pfizer-BioNTech,  has announced that three doses of vaccine are needed to combat Omicron. Research has shown that a third vaccine shot increases antibodies by 25%. They did not say how long those antibodies last. The company is rushing to develop an Omicron specific version of the vaccine which should be available by March 2022.

Omicron is the most transmissible of all the variants of COVID-19 to date. It is 4 times more transmissible than Delta. It has now been detected in 57 countries. Those numbers change by the hour. It will dominate the world stage in several weeks time. We will all be exposed to this variant. Symptoms include, Body aches and pains, muscle pain, headache, tiredness (1 to 2 days), and a slight sore throat. People are not getting a severe cough, or runny nose. These symptoms are consistent with my everyday existence for the past 20 months. A loss of smell or taste is no longer a symptom with Omicron. The fact is that many people will not realize that they have COVID-19 with these symptoms. Most will not go to hospitals and will recover at home. It is important to note however that there has been an slight increase in hospitalizations in South Africa, but it has not been a huge spike consistent with the amazing exponential growth in infections.

Though Omicron looms in the near future, the fact is that Delta is causing a huge spike in hospitalizations and death in states like Michigan and Minnesota. Despite these rising cases and deaths, most Americans are done with the pandemic and have returned to pre-pandemic life styles. Thanksgiving travel rivaled pre-pandemic travel and cases that resulted from all that mingling are just now reaching their peak. People have let their guard down and the virus will take full advantage of that weakness.

Children are the new victims of the virus. 132,000 children have been reported with infections in the last week across the country. Children will be infected by the Omicron variant at an increased rate. Children need to be vaccinated and even boosted if they are eligible. In South Africa 80% of the patients admitted to hospitals and diagnosed with COVID were under the age of 50. This is a younger age profile than existed with the Delta surge.

COVID Fight or Flight

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We have chosen flight over fight. Nations can choose to fight the war on COVID-19 by working together to vaccinate everyone in every nation or they can choose to cancel flights to nations that report new mutations.

As the virus spreads it will continue to mutate thus threatening every nation. Only 55% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Only 6% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose. That leaves plenty of unvaccinated people for the virus to infect and kill.

Nations that feel they are safe because they are offering booster jabs are misguided. The virus is evolving faster that the global distribution of vaccines. The World Health Organization set a target for all countries to vaccinate 10% of their populations by the end of September 2021. 56 countries effectively excluded from the global vaccine marketplace were not able to reach this target, most of them in Africa. It is not rocket science therefor to guess that new mutations would crop up in Africa.

Most manufacturers have largely spurned the opportunities to share technology and know-how and public health-oriented licensing. The global failure to share vaccines equitably is taking its toll on some of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people. New variants of concern mean that the risks of infection have increased in all countries for people who are not yet protected by vaccination.

When a hot spot emerges they should be bombed with huge supplies of vaccines, but instead borders are shut down and trade stops.

Anime Superspreader

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A fully vaccinated and boosted man from Minnesota and 30 friends flew to New York City to attend an Anime Convention at the . After attending the the man tested positive for the Omicron variant of COVID-19. 15 of the others in his party also tested positive for COVID-19. It is uncertain whether any of those cases involved the Omicron variant.

The Minnesota man has recovered from mild symptoms that began shortly after the convention ended. His friends are from other states and their conditions are not yet known.

Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont reported on December 4, 2021 his state’s first case, a man in his 60s, seemed to originate from a relative of an infected man who had recently attended the anime convention. Additional family members were being tested, and both the man and his relative were fully vaccinated and experiencing only mild symptoms.

The anime convention, which drew 53 thousand people to the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center for three days, was likely a vector for spreading the new variant. Many attendees wore masks but some of the rooms were incredibly crowded with people crowded together shoulder to shoulder.

Convention attendees were required to provide proof that they had received at least one vaccine shot and they had to wear masks, according to convention web site. A single shot of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine is at most 80% effective at preventing infection. That efficacy drops with the new Omicron variant. The bottom line is that it was irresponsible to hold such a crowded convention in a pandemic.

America’s COVID-19  testing and contact-tracing efforts, have been a complete failure since the start of the pandemic so the full extent of the spread from this single convention will never be fully known. After Minnesota officials learned that the convention attendee had the Omicron variant, they informed the New York City Health Department. City health officials said that they had begun sending text messages and emails to the thousands of the anime convention’s attendees, urging them to get tested. Dr. Ted Long, who oversees the city’s contact tracing program, said that he was aware of five positive cases so far among New York City residents who attended the anime convention. The CDC is assisting the Minnesota and New York City health departments in tracking any cases, a spokeswoman said.

It is easy the Anime Convention organizers to pass the blame. Perhaps the Minnesota man and his friends were infected at a restaurant, at the hotel or on the flight. Besides these people chose to attend this superspreader event. It is their own damn fault, oh, and thanks for attending.

Memory of a Goldfish

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Americans have the memory of a goldfish. We will all be exposed to Omicron by Christmas. It is doubling every day and a half which is faster that any of the previous waves. Because of America and the world’s failed response to the virus, herd Immunity is off the table.

It is like we have returned to the first weeks of the pandemic. Superspreader events crop up faster than I can document them. A Norwegian cruise ship is again acting as a petri dish for spreading disease.

When death numbers fall a bit, Americans are in a mad rush to return to “life as normal.” They rush to crushing crowds at concerts and celebrate holidays with as many people as they can in enclosed spaces. Mindless selfishness is the norm. The virus has come to its senses and realized that it makes no sense to kill off it’s human host so quickly. It is best to keep the human host alive to incubate new and more exotic variants.

Do not panic. Early cases of Omicron though spreading faster, are presenting as less severe that previous waves. The numbers of hospitalizations and people needing oxygen are not rising exponentially in South Africa. However with so many people becoming infected around the world all at once, even a small percentage of deadly infections could be a horrifyingly high number. The good news is that this tsunami of infections, if not severe, could infect and thus give anti bodies to those that have refused to get vaccinated. The previously infected will be re-infected. This could create some semblance of normalcy as we learn to live with the virus, but future mutations could be more deadly.